Toshiomi Kazama

Calls it 'very clearcut' and says Kazama's good skill set won't apply against Smith's 'massive striking advantage.'

A near-total grappler who explicitly does not want to strike, turning to it only when a takedown or pull-guard attempt fails. He is graded a solid grappler with decent takedowns, a good back take, strong activity off his back, good sweeps and an adept submission arsenal. The analyst, who correctly backed him in his last fight, still sees his skill set as not applicable against a striking-heavy opponent like Smith.

He tells viewers outright not to put real money on this pick, saying plainly that he lacks confidence in it. He calls the matchup genuinely hard to settle and expects to be nearly alone in picking Kazama. He still affirms Kazama has a real path to winning, so a side is named, but it comes bundled with explicit advice to stay off the fight.

He picks Kazama on a round-by-round takedown-and-control plan: get the fight down early, control through eaten strikes, and have the takedowns come progressively easier as Grigoriou tires, eventually taking the back for a decision. His recent losses are attributed to facing good competition, which the analyst does not hold heavily against him.

Calls the matchup genuinely close and difficult to settle, then commits to a named winner and finish method, immediately adding that he isn't sure he'd bet it straight -- a real commitment with acknowledged closeness, not a flat coinflip.

Strong Jiu Jitsu off a very wide toolbox -- judo-style throws and traditional wrestling entries to get there, then creative, aggressive submission hunting off his back, constant sweeping attempts, and a strong traditional-submission arsenal on top of his own unorthodox finishes. Striking is a clear weak point, and there are real chin concerns -- knocked down more than once, including against lower-level opposition.

The analyst states plainly that he is picking Nakamura to win.

A strong jiu-jitsu player with very good sweeps and transitions from the bottom and high-level trips in the clinch. He is very aggressive and comes forward with reckless abandon, which the analyst frames as a double-edged trait against a wrestler. He is good at seeking the sweep, better than many jiu-jitsu players, but pulling guard against a wrestler of Nakamura's level is called a real risk.