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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator
Elijah Smith
Bantamweight · “Swift”

Elijah Smith

3-0-0
Submission Grappler Precision Striker Leg-Kick Liability
5'9"Height
71"Reach
OrthodoxStance
24Age
1KO wins
1Sub wins
66.7%Finish rate
8:24Avg fight

Skill profile

Rated 0–100 · where 138 MMA has read him, his grades and tags set each axis and the stats only nudge inside his band · stats alone where he is silent · the rim is reserved for specialists
Striking — Average, rated 60 of 100 · 138 MMA: striking good · Nov 2026 · stats read 50 → nudged -2 inside the band · claims striking power +1, striking technique +3, hand speed +2 (+6) Accuracy — Average, rated 63 of 100 · claims striking technique +3 (+6) Striking D — Average, rated 57 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis Durability — Average, rated 53 of 100 · claims chin -2 (-4) Wrestling — Average, rated 54 of 100 · 138 MMA: wrestling good · Nov 2026 · stats read 31 → nudged -9 inside the band · tag top control retention: good (+2) · claims td offense +2 (+4) TD Defense — Below avg, rated 40 of 100 · 138 MMA: wrestling good (no takedown-defence tag), half-weighted with the stats read 14 · claims td defense +2 (+4) Grappling — Above avg, rated 71 of 100 · 138 MMA: grappling solid · Mar 2026 · stats read 45 → nudged -6 inside the band Control — Above avg, rated 71 of 100 · tag top control retention: good (+6) · claims top control +2 (+8) Striking Accuracy Striking D Durability Wrestling TD Defense Grappling Control
striking good
5 analyst reads graded this phase
  • good UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady · November 1, 2026 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Emmett vs Vallejos · March 8, 2026 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Dolidze vs Hernandez Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · August 4, 2025 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Cannonier vs Rodrigues Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · February 11, 2025 watch ↗
  • good Contender Series: Aaron Tau vs Elijah Smith Fight Analysis & Prediction (Week 6) · September 15, 2024 watch ↗
grappling solid
1 analyst read graded this phase
  • solid UFC Fight Night Emmett vs Vallejos · March 8, 2026 watch ↗
wrestling good
1 analyst read graded this phase
  • good UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady · November 1, 2026 watch ↗
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read
striking good 5 reads
grappling solid 1 read
wrestling good 1 read
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read

138 MMA anchors Striking, Wrestling, Grappling · his tags and claims adjust Accuracy, Durability, TD Defense, Control · stats alone on Striking D.

Built on 25 minutes of tracked cage time across 3 statted fights — every axis is held down until there is more tape, so read this as a sketch rather than a verdict.

Submission Grappler above avg grappling — rates 71 of 100 · 138 MMA: grappling solid · Mar 2026
Precision Striker average accuracy — rates 63 of 100 · claims striking technique +3 (+6)
Leg-Kick Liability 138 MMA · Sep 2024 tags leg kick defense: suspect
Career rates — the raw numbers behind the chart
Sig. strikes landed / min3.69
Sig. strikes absorbed / min1.7
Striking accuracy54.7%
Striking defense51.7%
Knockdowns / 15 min0.59
Takedowns / 15 min1.78
Takedown accuracy75.0%
Takedown defense46.2%
Sub attempts / 15 min1.19
Control time32.8%
Record vs .500+ opponents1-0

Insider info

5 analyst reads · 138 MMA · our paraphrase, never his words
vs Davey Grant lean UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady · November 1, 2026
strikinggood wrestlinggood grapplingsolid

He admits he was on the verge of picking the opponent, settles on Smith because of his fallback options, and says he would not be surprised at all by the other result.

A fast-handed boxer whose confidence on the feet is underwritten by a powerful, high-level wrestling game he can fall back on at any point.

Strengthquick hands with clean boxing combinations and a sharp, piercing jab
Strengthwilling to strike freely because he can bail out into wrestling if exchanges go badly
Strengthvery fast, forceful takedowns with an excellent double leg and heavy slams
Strengthadvances position steadily on top and applies strong top pressure
Strengthtraps the legs on top so the opponent cannot wriggle free
Strengthcan pin and hold a durable opponent down if the striking turns against him
ko power · decenttop control retention · good
vs Su Young You lean UFC Fight Night Emmett vs Vallejos · March 8, 2026 · 1 read since
strikinggood grapplingsolid

"this is far from" a lock, by his own rare admission

Good, clean-boxing striker with fast hands, a laser jab and good combinations; decent power without being a power puncher, generally setting things up off his wrestling though the analyst expects him to lead with boxing here instead. A solid grappler in his own right with super-fast, powerful double-leg entries, good top pressure and leg control, plus strong takedown-stopping ability.

Strengthfast hands
Strengthlaser jab
Strengthgood boxing combinations
Strengthdecent power
Strengthsuper-fast, powerful double-leg takedown entries
Strengthgood advancing position
Strengthtop pressure
Strengthwraps up legs well
Strengthstrong at stopping takedowns
ko power · decent
vs Toshiomi Kazama emphatic UFC Fight Night Dolidze vs Hernandez Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · August 4, 2025 · 2 reads since
strikinggood

Calls it 'very clearcut' and says Kazama's good skill set won't apply against Smith's 'massive striking advantage.'

A good striker whose hands are very quick, with decent power, good boxing combinations and a standout jab -- the clear edge in this matchup. He also carries a strong, if likely unneeded, grappling toolkit: fast takedown entries, a strong double leg, good top pressure and leg-wrap control. The analyst expects him to simply out-strike Kazama rather than need to grapple.

Strengthfast hands
Strengthdecent power
Strengthgood boxing combinations
Strengthstrong jab
Strengthfast takedown entries, strong double leg, good top pressure
ko power · decent
vs Vince Morales coinflip UFC Fight Night Cannonier vs Rodrigues Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · February 11, 2025 · 3 reads since
strikinggood

He leans toward the submission-upside underdog, saying he isn't quite ready to make that switch, before settling on Smith by decision and calling it a pick that could still flip before fight week.

A good, fast-handed striker who sets up his hands off his wrestling threat, with decent power and crisp boxing combinations. His wrestling is the real foundation - fast entries, a strong double leg, good top pressure and leg-wrap control; he did slow down in a tough Contender Series fight. As of 2025-02-11.

Strengthfast hands, good boxing combinations, decent power
Strengthsets up striking off his wrestling threat
Strengthfast takedown entries, strong double leg
Strengthgood top pressure, controls with leg-wraps
Weaknessshowed a slowdown in a tough Contender Series fight
ko power · decent
vs Aaron Tau coinflip Contender Series: Aaron Tau vs Elijah Smith Fight Analysis & Prediction (Week 6) · September 15, 2024 · 4 reads since
strikinggood

No clean pick stated; see review flag. The available transcript ends before any winner is named, mid-sentence into Smith's striking breakdown.

Elijah Smith is 6-1 (4-1 over his last five), with his lone loss to a real third party, Reyes Cortez, a fighter the analyst rates as very good -- which he uses to soften the loss rather than condemn Smith for it. In that fight Smith had real success for stretches before fading: he absorbed a heavy dose of leg kicks, grew visibly concerned as they kept landing, and was eventually dropped and finished by a straight right. The available transcript cuts off just as the analyst turns to a dedicated breakdown of Smith's own striking, confirming only the board's 'good Striker' headline before the file ends. Board credits him additionally with Solid Wrestling (takedown entries, double leg) and a non-core Adv Pos/grappling note (top control, leg wraps), neither addressed in the speech available here.

Strengthhad real success for stretches against a well-regarded opponent (Cortez)
Strengthboard-credited striking confirmed in speech as the breakdown begins ('good Striker')
Strengthboard-credited wrestling (TD entries, double leg) -- unconfirmed by speech in this segment
Weaknessabsorbed heavy leg-kick volume and grew visibly worried about it in his one loss
Weaknessfinished by a straight right following that kick attrition, same fight
leg kick defense · suspectcompetition quality · tested

Striking trend

Sig. strikes/min, last 3 fights · green = win
February 15, 2025 vs Vince Morales — 2.67/min (W) Feb '25 August 9, 2025 vs Toshiomi Kazama — 8.88/min (W) — only 4.2 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Aug '25 March 14, 2026 vs SuYoung You — 2.64/min (W) Mar '26

Fight history

3 UFC bouts · newest first · opponent records as of fight night
W SuYoung You 3-0 walk-in Submission · R2 1:04 — UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · March 14, 2026
16/27Sig. strikes
3/3Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
1:35Control
1Knockdowns
1Sub attempts
W Toshiomi Kazama 1-2 walk-in KO/TKO · R1 4:10 — UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · August 9, 2025
37/46Sig. strikes
0/0Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
3:49Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Vince Morales 16-8 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · February 15, 2025
40/97Sig. strikes
40/86Absorbed
3/4Takedowns
2:53Control
0Knockdowns
1Sub attempts

Walk-in records count UFC bouts in this database. For the pre-UFC career, see the record breakdown below or the Tapology button up top.

Record breakdown

UFC bouts in this database
3-0-0UFC record

Wins by method

KO/TKO 1
Submission 1
Decision 1
Other 0

Losses by method

KO/TKO 0
Submission 0
Decision 0
Other 0

Fights by organization

UFC 3

Showing UFC fights only — this fighter's full pre-UFC career hasn't been synced yet. It will fill in as the weekly career backfill reaches them.

Division context

vs. 124 qualified Bantamweight fighters · tick = division mean
Striking volume /min 3.7 avg 3.7
Strikes absorbed /min 1.7 avg 3.6
Striking accuracy 54.7% avg 44.0%
Striking defense 51.7% avg 56.4%
Takedowns /15 min 1.8 avg 1.6
Takedown accuracy 75.0% avg 36.9%
Takedown defense 46.2% avg 62.8%
Sub attempts /15 min 1.2 avg 0.5
Control time 32.8% avg 19.4%
Finish rate 66.7% avg 48.2%

Headshot of Elijah Smith by UFC · Official UFC athlete photo (copyright UFC; not freely licensed) · Wikimedia Commons · flattened onto dark background, cropped/resized