Rafael Cerqueira
Skill profile
138 MMA anchors Striking, Durability, Grappling · his tags and claims adjust Wrestling, Control · stats alone on Accuracy, Striking D, TD Defense.
Built on 18 minutes of tracked cage time across 4 statted fights — every axis is held down until there is more tape, so read this as a sketch rather than a verdict.
Career rates — the raw numbers behind the chart
Insider info
vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev clear UFC Fight Night Tsarukyan vs Hooker Analysis, Breakdown and Predictions · November 18, 2025
States the win plainly ("should get this one done") and argues there is no good case for backing the opponent, given the level of competition he has struggled with; no qualifier lands on the win itself, only closing color about the matchup.
As of 2025-11-18, a decent striker with decent power and a decent body kick, and a decent grappler with decent takedowns and heavy ground and pound. The analyst's main point about him is results-based rather than skills-based: he says this fighter has been run through by several lower-tier opponents in the division, including a close decision in his most recent outing against another lower-tier name.
vs Julius Walker emphatic UFC Fight Night Dolidze vs Hernandez Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · August 4, 2025 · 1 read since
Says he'll be 'shocked' if Walker loses, calls him 'a big favorite,' and predicts he 'runs through him' here.
A decent striker with real pop and a solid body kick, but the analyst says he 'crumbles' under adversity and caps him as a regional-level fighter who hasn't translated that up to the UFC. His grappling is decent, with real takedowns and heavy ground-and-pound, but overall he is read as a sizable live underdog here.
vs Modestas Bukauskas coinflip UFC Fight Night Cejudo vs Yadong Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · February 18, 2025 · 2 reads since
Says he is taking Bukauskas only to have a pick, does not feel great about it, tells viewers they should not either and says not to bet the fight.
A fighter the analyst says almost nobody can know much about: little regional tape and one UFC fight. Reading carefully and admittedly inferring, the analyst credits him with a good body kick, decent striking with some power, a good-looking grappling game with decent takedowns and fair ground strikes. Every point is hedged ('seems') and the analyst says he is reaching. He is 11-1 and 4-1 in his last five.
vs Ibo Aslan coinflip UFC 308 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · October 24, 2024 · 3 reads since
Stacked hedges: an explicit betting-caution (calls it a dumpster fire, advises against betting it) plus genuine outcome doubt (admits neither fighter is proven and does not like his own pick) are both present and distinct, not just a price caution.
A patient striker who can be a little too passive at times, but carries real power and a good body kick the analyst calls his best weapon. On the ground he has a genuine finishing submission -- two separate arm-triangle finishes -- suggesting a real jiu-jitsu background, plus heavy ground-and-pound and decent takedowns.
Striking trend
Fight history
L Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev 7-0 walk-in Submission · R1 0:33 — UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · November 22, 2025
L Julius Walker 0-1 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · August 9, 2025
L Modestas Bukauskas 16-6 walk-in KO/TKO · R1 2:12 — UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · February 22, 2025
L Ibo Aslan 13-1 walk-in KO/TKO · R1 0:51 — UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · October 26, 2024
Walk-in records count UFC bouts in this database. For the pre-UFC career, see the record breakdown below or the Tapology button up top.
Record breakdown
Wins by method
Losses by method
Fights by organization
Showing UFC fights only — this fighter's full pre-UFC career hasn't been synced yet. It will fill in as the weekly career backfill reaches them.
Division context
Headshot of Rafael Cerqueira by UFC · Official UFC athlete photo (copyright UFC; not freely licensed) · Wikimedia Commons · flattened onto dark background, cropped/resized