Payton Talbott

picks Talbott round-3 KO on a specific mechanism (pressure/volume, limited recent Cejudo wrestling usage); no hedge on the win itself, just disclosed fan affection for both men

As of 2025-12-02, he comes forward behind constant volume, carries legitimate pop, and strings together combinations that include a knee tucked mid-sequence specifically meant to make a wrestler nervous about shooting underneath his hands. His own defensive shape isn't great and his checking of leg kicks isn't either, mostly because he's so busy throwing his own offense, but he is durable and has never been seen to slow down from absorbing shots. His grappling is decent; his takedown defense is shaky early but improves as the rounds pass, and he is hard to keep down thanks to his pace and gas tank.

He flags up front that this pick could change by the panel show on Thursday, calls it one of the card's closest fights, says he probably won't bet on it, and gives the pick with root-beer language and an explicit 'for now.' That is a pick held provisionally, not a settled read.

Talbott is read, over the analyst's own explicit rejection of fan claims he is 'a fraud' and 'sucks,' as a genuinely good striker: heavy forward pressure that breaks opponents down, very high volume, real power, and a height/reach edge in this matchup. He is coming off his first loss, to the well-regarded grappler Raoni Barcelos, which the analyst frames as a tough, credential-rich style test rather than a sign Talbott is finished -- and expects him to have learned from it. His takedown defense and leg-kick defense are both open questions, though he gets back to his feet when taken down and stayed fresh deep into his loss to Barcelos.

Backs Talbott to finish it, floating a late knockout over a clean decision -- a call on method and timing, not the winner -- and separately says flatly he wouldn't put money on the other side.

A forward-driving striker who the analyst says simply breaks people down with constant pressure; his guard isn't tight and he has essentially no answer for leg kicks, but he's young, takes a shot well, and just keeps coming no matter what lands. Heavy hands and a steady output, plus a real wrinkle -- mixing knees into his combinations -- that the analyst says actively discourages opponents from shooting in. His own takedown defense technique is rated poorly, but he springs right back upright, and it's ultimately his gas tank that the analyst credits with wearing people down; he can be held down here and there, just not for long.

'I am picking' Talbott directly; the only hedge is on ROUND/method (expects a late finish, a closer fight early), not on the winner.

A forward-pressure striker who uses volume, power and knees mixed into his combos to break opponents down, with good front kicks/knees up the middle. Durable enough to absorb big shots and still young in his career, and an elite responder to takedowns -- he simply gets back up, which the analyst says demoralizes a grappler's game plan. His real liability is on defense: his striking defense is called poor and his leg-kick defense specifically is called even worse than that, which is exactly the tool Ghemmouri brings.

Named pick with a stated plan (absorb the leg kicks and shots, overwhelm with volume/power late), but immediately undercut by an explicit 'don't feel great about it' -- a direct hedge on the win itself, not just price or margin, so capped at coinflip despite the detailed mechanism.

Payton Talbott is read as a good, forward-pressure striker whose volume and power are described as what 'breaks' opponents, with knees worked into the middle of combinations as a signature weapon. His striking defense and leg-kick defense are both flagged as real weaknesses, but the analyst leans hard on a 'Terminator' durability nickname -- he absorbs punishment and keeps coming, and bounces back up even when his so-so takedown defense is tested.

Gives a specific, precedent-backed mechanism (his forward pressure and durability already broke a technically superior striker, Cortez, on the Contender Series) plus a method/round call (late finish, round 2-3) with no hedge on the win itself; 'probably' attaches only to timing/method, which does not demote.

A relentless forward-pressure striker with real power and heavy volume who simply walks opponents down -- the analyst admits he doubted this style would work at the UFC level, then watched Talbott use it to break a sharper, more technical striker (Cortez) on the Contender Series. He does not defend strikes or leg kicks well, but he is super durable, pops right back up off takedowns, and has (off-ladder) 'insane' cardio.