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Nicolle Caliari
Women's Strawweight

Nicolle Caliari

1-3-0
Wrestler Positional Grappler Suspect TD Defense Slow Starter
5'3"Height
62"Reach
OrthodoxStance
30Age
0KO wins
1Sub wins
100.0%Finish rate
13:39Avg fight

Skill profile

Rated 0–100 · where 138 MMA has read him, his grades and tags set each axis and the stats only nudge inside his band · stats alone where he is silent · the rim is reserved for specialists
Striking — Average, rated 52 of 100 · 138 MMA: striking good · Oct 2026 · stats read 26 → nudged -11 inside the band · claims striking volume +2, striking technique +2, kicking +1, pressure +1 (+6) Accuracy — Below avg, rated 42 of 100 · claims striking technique +2 (+4) Striking D — Weak, rated 23 of 100 · claims head movement +1 (+2) Durability — Below avg, rated 32 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis Wrestling — Above avg, rated 79 of 100 · claims td offense +1, clinch +1 (+3) TD Defense — Below avg, rated 34 of 100 · 138 MMA tag td defense: suspect · Oct 2026 · stats read 43 → nudged +3 inside the band · claims td defense -1, getup -1 (-4) Grappling — Average, rated 55 of 100 · 138 MMA: grappling good · Oct 2026 · stats read 44 → nudged -4 inside the band · claims sub offense +1 (+2) Control — Average, rated 69 of 100 · claims top control -1 (-4) Striking Accuracy Striking D Durability Wrestling TD Defense Grappling Control
striking good
4 analyst reads graded this phase
  • good UFC 333 Full Card Preview & Predictions · October 17, 2026 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Allen vs Costa Full Card Preview & Predictions · May 10, 2026 watch ↗
  • good UFC 318 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · July 15, 2025 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Dern vs Ribas 2 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · January 7, 2025 watch ↗
grappling good
4 analyst reads graded this phase
  • good UFC 333 Full Card Preview & Predictions · October 17, 2026 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Allen vs Costa Full Card Preview & Predictions · May 10, 2026 watch ↗
  • good UFC 318 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · July 15, 2025 watch ↗
  • decent UFC Fight Night Dern vs Ribas 2 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · January 7, 2025 watch ↗
wrestling not yet read
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read
striking good 4 reads
grappling good 4 reads
wrestling not yet read
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read

138 MMA anchors Striking, TD Defense, Grappling · his tags and claims adjust Accuracy, Striking D, Wrestling, Control · stats alone on Durability.

Built on 54 minutes of tracked cage time across 4 statted fights — every axis is held down until there is more tape, so read this as a sketch rather than a verdict.

Wrestler above avg wrestling — rates 79 of 100 · claims td offense +1, clinch +1 (+3)
Positional Grappler average control — rates 69 of 100 · claims top control -1 (-4)
Suspect TD Defense 138 MMA · Oct 2026 tags td defense: suspect
Slow Starter 138 MMA · Oct 2026 tags pace: slow starter
Career rates — the raw numbers behind the chart
Sig. strikes landed / min2.67
Sig. strikes absorbed / min4.83
Striking accuracy42.8%
Striking defense51.9%
Knockdowns / 15 min0.0
Takedowns / 15 min2.75
Takedown accuracy28.6%
Takedown defense40.0%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.27
Control time29.5%
Record vs .500+ opponents0-1

Insider info

4 analyst reads · 138 MMA · our paraphrase, never his words
vs Iasmin Lucindo clear UFC 333 Full Card Preview & Predictions · October 17, 2026
strikinggood grapplinggood

He states this led him to pick Lucindo on a real top-control path; his stated doubt is whether she uses that path, a method hedge, not a win hedge.

Good striker whose best asset is tight combinations mixing punches and kicks, with good footwork; her output starts slower early and builds through the rounds. A good offensive grappler who can control against the cage, trip opponents, and attack submissions, but her takedown defense is a real weakness -- she is very capable of ending up stuck on her back and losing minutes there.

Strengthstrong combinations mixing punches and kicks
Strengthgood footwork
Strengthgood cage control and trips
Strengthattacks submissions once on the mat
Weaknesstakedown defense suffers
Weaknesscan get stuck on bottom and lose minutes there
td defense · suspectpace · slow starter
vs Shauna Bannon coinflip UFC Fight Night Allen vs Costa Full Card Preview & Predictions · May 10, 2026 · 1 read since
strikinggood grapplinggood

He spends several segments on an unresolved question about how she handles 0-2 pressure, and admits plainly he 'can't feel super confident' about the pick.

Nicolle Caliari is a good striker and grappler whose output famously starts slow and builds across the fight, eventually reaching good volume. Her clearest route to the win is pressing Bannon to the cage, working trips, and attacking submissions once there, since the analyst calls Bannon's takedown defense a real hole. She is 0-2 in the UFC, which the analyst treats as added pressure heading into this fight.

Strengthgood footwork and combinations, mixes punches and kicks well
Strengthher work rate climbs over the course of a fight, finishing with good volume
Strengthgood cage-push grappling with real control time
Strengthgoes for trips and attacks submissions aggressively once grounded
Weaknessher own takedown defense is shaky and she can be held down
pace · slow startertd defense · suspect
vs Carli Judice lean UFC 318 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · July 15, 2025 · 2 reads since
strikinggood grapplinggood

He commits to Judice on volume, but immediately hedges: predicts another split decision is possible and says he'll mainly 'be watching this one,' not confidently invested.

A capable striker whose footwork and combination work earn praise, but whose output ramps up slowly before building through the fight. Her grappling is rated a touch higher: solid cage control, trips, and submission attempts, but the analyst notes that on the regional scene she has also been taken down and held on the mat.

Strengthgood footwork
Strengthcombinations, mixes punches and kicks
Strengthcage push and control
Strengthgood trips
Strengthattacks submissions
Weaknessslow output early rounds
Weaknesscan be taken down and held on the mat
pace · slow startertd defense · suspect
vs Ernesta Kareckaite lean UFC Fight Night Dern vs Ribas 2 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · January 7, 2025 · 3 reads since
strikinggood grapplingdecent

Names Kareckaite as the favorite on cardio, a reach edge and a slim striking advantage, but admits up front he might have this one backwards -- a direct hedge on the outcome, not just on price.

Good striker with solid footwork who blends her hands and kicks well, with an output that climbs steadily and peaks late. Decent grappler who presses opponents to the cage, controls and trips them down, and hunts submissions once there, though she remains vulnerable to being controlled on the mat herself.

StrengthGood footwork and combination striking that builds across a fight
StrengthCage-pressure grappling with control, trips and submission attacks
WeaknessMust close a real reach disadvantage against a mobile opponent
WeaknessCan be taken down or held down when her own offense doesn't land

Striking trend

Sig. strikes/min, last 4 fights · green = win
January 11, 2025 vs Ernesta Kareckaite — 4.47/min (L) Jan '25 July 19, 2025 vs Carli Judice — 2.78/min (L) Jul '25 May 16, 2026 vs Shauna Bannon — 1.52/min (W) May '26 October 24, 2026 vs Iasmin Lucindo — 1.8/min (L) Oct '26

Fight history

4 UFC bouts · newest first · opponent records as of fight night
L Iasmin Lucindo 18-6 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · October 24, 2026
27/36Sig. strikes
31/49Absorbed
2/4Takedowns
2:15Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Shauna Bannon 2-2 walk-in Submission · R3 3:08 — UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · May 16, 2026
20/38Sig. strikes
29/49Absorbed
4/9Takedowns
9:18Control
0Knockdowns
1Sub attempts
L Carli Judice 1-1 walk-in KO/TKO · R3 1:30 — UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · July 19, 2025
32/101Sig. strikes
109/225Absorbed
1/8Takedowns
1:00Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Ernesta Kareckaite 0-1 walk-in Decision - Split · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · January 11, 2025
67/166Sig. strikes
95/226Absorbed
3/14Takedowns
3:34Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts

Walk-in records count UFC bouts in this database. For the pre-UFC career, see the record breakdown below or the Tapology button up top.

Record breakdown

UFC bouts in this database
1-3-0UFC record

Wins by method

KO/TKO 0
Submission 1
Decision 0
Other 0

Losses by method

KO/TKO 1
Submission 0
Decision 2
Other 0

Fights by organization

UFC 4

Showing UFC fights only — this fighter's full pre-UFC career hasn't been synced yet. It will fill in as the weekly career backfill reaches them.

Division context

vs. 58 qualified Women's Strawweight fighters · tick = division mean
Striking volume /min 2.7 avg 3.9
Strikes absorbed /min 4.8 avg 4.1
Striking accuracy 42.8% avg 45.0%
Striking defense 51.9% avg 54.4%
Takedowns /15 min 2.8 avg 1.5
Takedown accuracy 28.6% avg 38.7%
Takedown defense 40.0% avg 60.8%
Sub attempts /15 min 0.3 avg 0.5
Control time 29.5% avg 21.2%
Finish rate 100.0% avg 33.9%

Headshot of Nicolle Caliari by UFC · Official UFC athlete photo (copyright UFC; not freely licensed) · Wikimedia Commons · flattened onto dark background, cropped/resized