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Miguel Baeza
Welterweight · “Caramel Thunder”

Miguel Baeza

10-4-0 UFC 3-4-0
Striker Submission Grappler
6'2"Height
74"Reach
OrthodoxStance
34Age
2KO wins
1Sub wins
100.0%Finish rate
9:42Avg fight

Skill profile

Rated 0–100 · where 138 MMA has read him, his grades and tags set each axis and the stats only nudge inside his band · stats alone where he is silent · the rim is reserved for specialists
Striking — Average, rated 70 of 100 · 138 MMA: striking good · Jun 2024 · stats read 67 → nudged +3 inside the band · tag ko power: good (+3) · claims striking power +2, striking volume +1, striking technique +1, kicking +1 (+6) Accuracy — Average, rated 64 of 100 · claims striking technique +1 (+2) Striking D — Weak, rated 8 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis Durability — Weak, rated 16 of 100 · claims chin -1 (-2) Wrestling — Weak, rated 23 of 100 · claims td offense +1 (+2) TD Defense — Below avg, rated 38 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis Grappling — Average, rated 58 of 100 · 138 MMA: grappling good · Jun 2024 · stats read 58 → nudged +0 inside the band · claims ground and pound +1 (+1) Control — Weak, rated 11 of 100 · claims ground and pound +1 (+2) Striking Accuracy Striking D Durability Wrestling TD Defense Grappling Control
striking good
1 analyst read graded this phase
  • good UFC Fight Night Cannonier vs Imavov Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown (UFC Louisville) · June 4, 2024 watch ↗
grappling good
1 analyst read graded this phase
  • good UFC Fight Night Cannonier vs Imavov Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown (UFC Louisville) · June 4, 2024 watch ↗
wrestling not yet read
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read
striking good 1 read
grappling good 1 read
wrestling not yet read
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read

138 MMA anchors Striking, Grappling · his tags and claims adjust Accuracy, Durability, Wrestling, Control · stats alone on Striking D, TD Defense.

Built on 67 minutes of tracked cage time across 7 statted fights — every axis is held down until there is more tape, so read this as a sketch rather than a verdict.

Striker average striking — rates 70 of 100 · 138 MMA: striking good · Jun 2024
Submission Grappler average grappling — rates 58 of 100 · 138 MMA: grappling good · Jun 2024
Career rates — the raw numbers behind the chart
Sig. strikes landed / min4.09
Sig. strikes absorbed / min5.91
Striking accuracy47.8%
Striking defense49.3%
Knockdowns / 15 min0.66
Takedowns / 15 min0.44
Takedown accuracy28.6%
Takedown defense44.4%
Sub attempts / 15 min1.99
Control time4.2%
Record vs .500+ opponents2-2

Insider info

1 analyst read · 138 MMA · our paraphrase, never his words
vs Punahele Soriano coinflip UFC Fight Night Cannonier vs Imavov Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown (UFC Louisville) · June 4, 2024
strikinggood grapplinggood

Explicit, repeated stay-away-from-betting language -- he tells viewers directly not to wager on this one and calls it too risky -- combined with genuine outcome doubt stated directly (he says he doesn't know if it's a fight-IQ issue, and names the many unknowns in the matchup). This is the wager-caution-plus-outcome-doubt shape the confidence-bar rule treats as coinflip, not merely a capped-but-real lean.

A good striker with good combinations, strike-mixing (punches/kicks/elbows), good power, and a good leg kick, plus good grappling off the cage with pretty good ground-and-pound. Coming off a two-year layoff and two prior knockout losses, his durability is an open question the analyst repeatedly marks as uncertain rather than graded -- matching the board's own handwritten question mark on that item.

Strengthcombination striking
Strengthpower
Strengthleg kick
Strengthcage takedowns/ground-and-pound
Weaknessdurability genuinely unknown after two KO losses and a long layoff
ko power · good

Striking trend

Sig. strikes/min, last 7 fights · green = win
October 12, 2019 vs Hector Aldana — 4.65/min (W) Oct '19 May 16, 2020 vs Matt Brown — 6.98/min (W) May '20 November 28, 2020 vs Takashi Sato — 4.23/min (W) Nov '20 June 5, 2021 vs Santiago Ponzinibbio — 6.93/min (L) Jun '21 November 13, 2021 vs Khaos Williams — 2.81/min (L) Nov '21 April 16, 2022 vs Andre Fialho — 5.16/min (L) — only 4.7 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Apr '22 June 8, 2024 vs Punahele Soriano — 0.47/min (L) Jun '24

Fight history

7 UFC bouts · newest first · opponent records as of fight night
L Punahele Soriano 9-4 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · June 8, 2024
7/12Sig. strikes
144/175Absorbed
0/2Takedowns
0:47Control
0Knockdowns
3Sub attempts
L Andre Fialho 12-4 walk-in KO/TKO · R1 4:39 — UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muhammad · April 16, 2022
24/58Sig. strikes
32/56Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Khaos Williams 12-2 walk-in KO/TKO · R3 1:02 — UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · November 13, 2021
31/56Sig. strikes
49/131Absorbed
0/2Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
5Sub attempts
L Santiago Ponzinibbio 25-4 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai · June 5, 2021
104/249Sig. strikes
121/270Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Takashi Sato 16-3 walk-in Submission · R2 4:28 — UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark · November 28, 2020
40/73Sig. strikes
15/58Absorbed
1/2Takedowns
1:09Control
0Knockdowns
1Sub attempts
W Matt Brown 22-16 walk-in KO/TKO · R2 0:18 — UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris · May 16, 2020
37/73Sig. strikes
33/61Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:57Control
2Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Hector Aldana 4-2 walk-in KO/TKO · R2 2:32 — UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson · October 12, 2019
35/61Sig. strikes
8/42Absorbed
1/1Takedowns
0:00Control
1Knockdowns
0Sub attempts

Walk-in records count UFC bouts in this database. For the pre-UFC career, see the record breakdown below or the Tapology button up top.

Record breakdown

Full pro career (Wikipedia, results only)
10-4-0Pro record
MMA MastersGym / team

Wins by method

KO/TKO 7
Submission 1
Decision 2
Other 0

Losses by method

KO/TKO 2
Submission 0
Decision 2
Other 0

Fights by organization

UFC 7
Fight Time 3
Dana White's Contender Series 1
XFN 1
Titan FC 1
Rings of Dreams 1
Full career — 14 fights, every organization
OpponentMethodEventOrg RdTime
L Punahele Soriano Decision (unanimous) UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Imavov
June 8, 2024
UFC 3 5:00
L André Fialho TKO (punches) UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. Muhammad 2
April 16, 2022
UFC 1 4:39
L Khaos Williams TKO (punches) UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodríguez
November 13, 2021
UFC 3 1:02
L Santiago Ponzinibbio Decision (unanimous) UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai
June 5, 2021
UFC 3 5:00
W Takashi Sato Submission (arm-triangle choke) UFC on ESPN: Smith vs. Clark
November 28, 2020
UFC 2 4:28
W Matt Brown TKO (punches) UFC on ESPN: Overeem vs. Harris
May 16, 2020
UFC 2 0:18
W Hector Aldana TKO (leg kick and elbows) UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson
October 12, 2019
UFC 2 2:32
W Victor Reyna Decision (unanimous) Dana White's Contender Series 18
June 25, 2019
Dana White's Contender Series 3 5:00
W Matthew Colquhoun KO (punches) XFN 22
December 15, 2018
XFN 1 3:31
W Leo Valdivia Decision (split) Fight Time 37
September 1, 2017
Fight Time 3 5:00
W Augustus D'Angelo TKO (pucnhes) Fight Time 36
April 7, 2017
Fight Time 2 1:14
W Mike D'Angelo KO (punches) Fight Time 33
October 21, 2016
Fight Time 1 3:48
W Emre Orun KO (punch) Titan FC 40
August 5, 2016
Titan FC 1 1:45
W John McDonald TKO (punches) Rings of Dreams: Fight Night 17
August 22, 2015
Rings of Dreams 1 1:21

Career history from the fighter's Wikipedia record table (Miguel Baeza) — results only, no strike stats; UFC bouts are marked and carry full stats in the fight history above.

Division context

vs. 189 qualified Welterweight fighters · tick = division mean
Striking volume /min 4.1 avg 3.4
Strikes absorbed /min 5.9 avg 3.3
Striking accuracy 47.8% avg 45.1%
Striking defense 49.3% avg 55.2%
Takedowns /15 min 0.4 avg 1.5
Takedown accuracy 28.6% avg 40.2%
Takedown defense 44.4% avg 62.6%
Sub attempts /15 min 2.0 avg 0.6
Control time 4.2% avg 21.5%
Finish rate 100.0% avg 53.9%

Headshot of Miguel Baeza by UFC · Official UFC athlete photo (copyright UFC; not freely licensed) · Wikimedia Commons · flattened onto dark background, cropped/resized