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Bout Simulator
Keiichiro Nakamura
Featherweight

Keiichiro Nakamura

1-0-0
Fast Starter Durable
5'10"Height
70"Reach
SouthpawStance
27Age
1KO wins
0Sub wins
100.0%Finish rate
13:48Avg fight
Simulate Tapology ↗

Skill profile

Rated 0–100 · where 138 MMA has read him, his grades and tags set each axis and the stats only nudge inside his band · stats alone where he is silent · the rim is reserved for specialists
Striking — Average, rated 55 of 100 · 138 MMA: striking good · Nov 2026 · stats read 36 → nudged -7 inside the band · claims striking power +1, striking volume +1, striking technique +1, pressure +2 (+6) Accuracy — Below avg, rated 30 of 100 · claims striking technique +1 (+2) Striking D — Below avg, rated 35 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis Durability — Above avg, rated 75 of 100 · 138 MMA tag chin: durable · Nov 2026 · stats read 49 → nudged -3 inside the band · claims chin +2 (+4) Wrestling — Weak, rated 11 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis TD Defense — Above avg, rated 75 of 100 · 138 MMA tag td defense: good · Nov 2026 · stats read 42 → nudged -3 inside the band · claims td defense +2 (+4) Grappling — Below avg, rated 37 of 100 · 138 MMA: grappling decent · Nov 2026 · stats read 28 → nudged -4 inside the band · claims ground and pound +2 (+2) Control — Below avg, rated 28 of 100 · claims ground and pound +2 (+3) Striking Accuracy Striking D Durability Wrestling TD Defense Grappling Control
striking good
2 analyst reads graded this phase
  • good UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady · November 1, 2026 watch ↗
  • good UFC 325 Analysis, Breakdown, & Predictions · January 25, 2026 watch ↗
grappling decent
2 analyst reads graded this phase
  • decent UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady · November 1, 2026 watch ↗
  • decent UFC 325 Analysis, Breakdown, & Predictions · January 25, 2026 watch ↗
wrestling not yet read
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read
striking good 2 reads
grappling decent 2 reads
wrestling not yet read
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read

138 MMA anchors Striking, Durability, TD Defense, Grappling · his tags and claims adjust Accuracy, Control · stats alone on Striking D, Wrestling.

Built on 13 minutes of tracked cage time across 1 statted fight — every axis is held down until there is more tape, so read this as a sketch rather than a verdict.

Fast Starter 138 MMA · Nov 2026 tags pace: fast starter
Durable above avg durability — rates 75 of 100 · 138 MMA tag chin: durable · Nov 2026
Career rates — the raw numbers behind the chart
Sig. strikes landed / min3.26
Sig. strikes absorbed / min5.72
Striking accuracy37.8%
Striking defense61.3%
Knockdowns / 15 min1.09
Takedowns / 15 min0.0
Takedown accuracy—
Takedown defense0.0%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.0
Control time0.5%
Record vs .500+ opponents0-0

Insider info

2 analyst reads · 138 MMA · our paraphrase, never his words
vs Ollie Schmid coinflip UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady · November 1, 2026
strikinggood grapplingdecent

He names a side but openly states he wishes he could be confident and admits either man could be the one knocked out, making the pick barely more than a coin toss.

A forward-pressing, durable volume puncher with good combinations and heavy top-side ground-and-pound, picked mainly because his chin is the more trustworthy one in a likely shootout.

Strengthmarches forward and starts fast, immediately putting hands on the opponent
Strengthgood output with combinations rather than single shots
Strengthheavy ground and pound once he establishes top position
Strengthtakedown defense holds up well
Strengthcame up through a multi-fight qualifying route, so his level is somewhat verified
Weaknesshis willingness to stand and trade plays into an opponent who wants the same fight
Weaknessvulnerable to being caught by spinning attacks in an exchange-heavy fight
pace · fast starterchin · durabletd defense · goodcompetition quality · tested
vs Sebastian Szalay lean UFC 325 Analysis, Breakdown, & Predictions · January 25, 2026 · 1 read since
strikinggood grapplingdecent

Closes by taking Szalay but adding that a Nakamura win would most likely come by knockout -- a real, unrebutted finish route conceded to the opponent right alongside the pick.

Described as a guy who has kept proving tournament doubters wrong: a good striker who starts fast and presses forward early with good power, combinations and volume, backed by real durability that makes him tough to fight on the feet early. His grappling is decent -- his forward pressure and takedown defense stop opponents from shooting, and if he stuffs a takedown and pushes an opponent back, his ground-and-pound is heavy.

Strengthfast starter / forward pressure
Strengthpower, combinations, volume
Strengthdurability
Strengthtakedown defense tied to forward pressure
Strengthheavy ground-and-pound off a stuffed takedown
chin · durablepace · fast starter

Fight history

1 UFC bout · newest first · opponent records as of fight night
W Sebastian Szalay 0-0 walk-in KO/TKO · R3 3:48 — UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · January 31, 2026
45/119Sig. strikes
79/204Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:04Control
1Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
Full event page › Deep dive vs Sebastian Szalay › Simulate vs Sebastian Szalay ›

Walk-in records count UFC bouts in this database. For the pre-UFC career, see the record breakdown below or the Tapology button up top.

Record breakdown

UFC bouts in this database
1-0-0UFC record

Wins by method

KO/TKO 1
Submission 0
Decision 0
Other 0

Losses by method

KO/TKO 0
Submission 0
Decision 0
Other 0

Fights by organization

UFC 1

Showing UFC fights only — this fighter's full pre-UFC career hasn't been synced yet. It will fill in as the weekly career backfill reaches them.

Division context

vs. 134 qualified Featherweight fighters · tick = division mean
Striking volume /min 3.3 avg 3.6
Strikes absorbed /min 5.7 avg 3.6
Striking accuracy 37.8% avg 45.0%
Striking defense 61.3% avg 55.3%
Takedowns /15 min 0.0 avg 1.5
Takedown defense 0.0% avg 60.2%
Sub attempts /15 min 0.0 avg 0.6
Control time 0.5% avg 20.1%
Finish rate 100.0% avg 44.2%

Headshot of Keiichiro Nakamura by UFC · Official UFC athlete photo (copyright UFC; not freely licensed) · Wikimedia Commons · flattened onto dark background, cropped/resized