Jose Johnson

Gives two concrete reasons for the pick (expects Bunes to get takedowns and to stay on top against Johnson's back-heavy game) and commits without hedging on who wins; notes the underdog price only as context.

Good striker with real power at range, using his height advantage to kick and knee at awkward angles for shorter opponents. Good jiu-jitsu player who is willing to work off his back, able to get sweeps and dangerous with elbows and submissions from there, but his takedown defense is a liability.

He commits to Almabayev as the better fighter but immediately calls this a tricky spot given how large a favorite Almabayev is, and says he would not be shocked at all to see Johnson win -- a direct hedge on the win itself.

Our words: a solid, Muay Thai-style striker with real power at range and a significant height/reach advantage that the analyst says makes him clearly the better pure striker in this matchup; his knees are particularly dangerous against a shorter, wrestling-forward opponent shooting in. Good BJJ, active off his back with triangle attempts and good sweeps, but his takedown defense isn't good, which the analyst expects to be the deciding factor given he will likely be taken down repeatedly.

States a full, specific mechanism (Anheliger's pressure draws exchanges and a takedown attempt, where Johnson's dangerous guard finishes by submission) without a direct hedge on the win itself; repeated 'I think' is his normal narration style, not a special qualifier here.

A tall, long-armed striker with very good power at range, kicks to all levels and good knees up the middle -- a real height/reach advantage (6'0"/71.5"R vs 5'6"/64"R). His jiu-jitsu is good and he is dangerous off his back seeking submissions, with good sweeps he underuses, but his takedown defense is described as miserable.

names Blackshear as the pick three separate times, reasoning from Johnson's short notice and poor takedown defense.

A dangerous, kickboxing-based striker whose hardest shots land from distance, paired with a varied kicking attack, good Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and strong scrambling ability; his own takedown defense is called horrible, and rather than scramble back up he is content to hunt submissions from the bottom. He goes into this fight with very little lead time before the event.

He commits to Johnson by name as the pick, reasoning through finishing upside against a coin-flip decision outlook, but right after that admits he isn't very confident and is only betting it for the live underdog value.

A solid Muay Thai striker who does his best work at range, using power punches and kicks to all levels, including the head kick, against a shorter opponent. His takedown defense is a real hole, but he scrambles well and is dangerous off his back with his jiu-jitsu, though he has at times been content to play passively from guard rather than fight to get up.