Jeremiah Wells

He picks Orolbai by the narrowest margin he expresses anywhere on the card, and immediately undercuts it by saying his own read on Wells runs high. He invites viewers to argue him back the other way.

A grappler-first welterweight the analyst openly rates above the consensus, and says so as a caution rather than a boast. On the feet he has downgraded his own earlier assessment: the power and the counters are real, but the moment Wells has to lead the exchange and build combinations himself, the striking thins out. The mat is where he is genuinely dangerous, combining physical strength with real skill to advance position, take the back, and finish there. The concern is structural rather than technical: his best path is an early grappling takeover, and if it does not arrive, his routes to winning narrow as the fight goes on.

He concedes Wells might take early rounds ('sure') but settles firmly on Dalby's pace and gas tank taking over late for a 'more output' decision.

Jeremiah Wells is built around physical, bullying grappling: he advances position, gets to the back and hunts the rear naked choke, using strength as much as technique when needed. He also has a credible striking game with real power and good counters, aided by a long reach. The analyst sees him as capable of winning the first two rounds but ultimately losing a grinding, high-output fight to Dalby.

He calls Wells "a very live underdog" and takes him, but immediately adds he "doesn't feel the best about it" because Gorimbo could finish him -- a hedge on the win itself, not just the method.

A powerful counter striker -- the analyst debates grading him only decent but bumps him up to good specifically for his power and counter timing. His clearer path is on the ground: his takedown entries aren't always his best tool, but he can bully his way into top position, is extremely physical advancing from there, and owns a good rear naked choke once he gets the back. As of 2025-10-28.

Picks against the field, which he expects to favor Griffin as the underdog angle, but says outright he does not feel good about the pick.

12-3-1 at welterweight. Our paraphrase: praised for power and solid counter-striking even though his toolbox is said to be smaller than his opponent's, and rated a strong, bullying grappler who takes the back well and finishes with the rear naked choke.

Named repeatedly: he says he favors Harris (seg 9) and explicitly says 'give me carlston Harris' (seg 11), adding that he thinks Harris gets the job done. He states directly and literally that this is a coinflip: he says flipping a coin would be just as accurate as his own pick here, and separately calls the fight essentially 50/50. The stated reason for the lean is price plus a physical edge (height/range) rather than a skill edge -- he takes the underdog price specifically because of that physical advantage.

Wells is a well-rounded 5-0-in-his-last-five fighter with good power striking and real counter-striking ability, plus an accomplished, bullying grappling game: good passing (by skill or athleticism), control, and a dominant finishing choke once he reaches the back. The analyst sees this as a genuinely close, even matchup rather than one with a clear skill gap.

Stated plainly ('I like Samuel's Burger') with a named mechanism -- length, volume and durability closing the gap on Wells late -- and no hedge on the win itself; the only uncertainty voiced is about final-fight method (knockout for Wells, decision for Semelsberger), which per the confidence bar does not demote.

Very powerful, counter-capable striking and a strong wrestling-and-bullying game that lets him advance position even without a perfect entry, backed by real skill on the ground including a fast, effective rear-naked choke.