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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator
Hailey Cowan
Women's Bantamweight · “All Hail”

Hailey Cowan

0-4-0
Hard To Take Down Positional Grappler
5'8"Height
67"Reach
SouthpawStance
34Age
0KO wins
0Sub wins
0%Finish rate
8:44Avg fight

Skill profile

Rated 0–100 · where 138 MMA has read him, his grades and tags set each axis and the stats only nudge inside his band · stats alone where he is silent · the rim is reserved for specialists
Striking — Below avg, rated 42 of 100 · 138 MMA: striking decent · Jul 2026 · stats read 31 → nudged -3 inside the band · claims striking power +1, striking technique +1, kicking +2, pressure +1 (+6) Accuracy — Below avg, rated 33 of 100 · claims striking technique +1 (+2) Striking D — Below avg, rated 26 of 100 · 138 MMA whiteboard: striking defence marked as a minus · stats read 16 → nudged -7 inside the band · claims striking defense -2 (-6) Durability — Weak, rated 10 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis Wrestling — Below avg, rated 44 of 100 · 138 MMA: wrestling decent · Apr 2023 · stats read 58 → nudged +5 inside the band · claims td offense +1 (+2) TD Defense — Above avg, rated 73 of 100 · 138 MMA tag td defense: good · Jul 2026 · stats read 55 → nudged -3 inside the band · claims td defense +1 (+2) Grappling — Below avg, rated 36 of 100 · 138 MMA: grappling decent · Jul 2026 · stats read 30 → nudged -3 inside the band Control — Average, rated 67 of 100 · claims top control +1 (+4) Striking Accuracy Striking D Durability Wrestling TD Defense Grappling Control
striking decent
4 analyst reads graded this phase
  • decent UFC Fight Night Medic vs Rodriguez Full Card Preview & Predictions · July 26, 2026 watch ↗
  • decent UFC Fight Night Moicano vs Duncan · March 29, 2026 watch ↗
  • decent UFC 314 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · April 8, 2025 watch ↗
  • decent UFC Fight Night Song vs Simon Predictions And Full Card Breakdown UFC Vegas 72 · April 25, 2023 watch ↗
grappling decent
3 analyst reads graded this phase
  • decent UFC Fight Night Medic vs Rodriguez Full Card Preview & Predictions · July 26, 2026 watch ↗
  • decent UFC Fight Night Moicano vs Duncan · March 29, 2026 watch ↗
  • decent UFC 314 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · April 8, 2025 watch ↗
wrestling decent
2 analyst reads graded this phase
  • decent UFC Fight Night Song vs Simon Predictions And Full Card Breakdown UFC Vegas 72 · April 25, 2023 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Vera vs Sandhagen Predictions And Full Card Breakdown UFC Fight Night San Antonio · March 21, 2023 watch ↗
cardio good
1 analyst read graded this phase
  • good UFC Fight Night Vera vs Sandhagen Predictions And Full Card Breakdown UFC Fight Night San Antonio · March 21, 2023 watch ↗
durability not yet read
striking decent 4 reads
grappling decent 3 reads
wrestling decent 2 reads
cardio good 1 read
durability not yet read

138 MMA anchors Striking, Striking D, Wrestling, TD Defense, Grappling · his tags and claims adjust Accuracy, Control · stats alone on Durability.

Built on 34 minutes of tracked cage time across 4 statted fights — every axis is held down until there is more tape, so read this as a sketch rather than a verdict.

Hard To Take Down above avg td defense — rates 73 of 100 · 138 MMA tag td defense: good · Jul 2026
Positional Grappler average control — rates 67 of 100 · claims top control +1 (+4)
Career rates — the raw numbers behind the chart
Sig. strikes landed / min3.15
Sig. strikes absorbed / min3.92
Striking accuracy40.9%
Striking defense39.4%
Knockdowns / 15 min0.0
Takedowns / 15 min2.15
Takedown accuracy33.3%
Takedown defense100.0%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.0
Control time38.6%
Record vs .500+ opponents0-1

Insider info

6 analyst reads · 138 MMA · our paraphrase, never his words
vs Nina Milosevic emphatic UFC Fight Night Medic vs Rodriguez Full Card Preview & Predictions · July 26, 2026
strikingdecent grapplingdecent wrestlingdecent cardiogood

Says plainly that if he's wrong about this pick, 'that will surprise me.' Moves through the breakdown quickly, saying he is not worried about this particular matchup.

Cowan has built her career on athleticism, which the analyst credits for a winning record despite modest tools. Her striking is decent with kicks to all levels, but her striking defense is called bad. Her grappling is decent, with decent takedowns and pretty good takedown defense helped along by that same athleticism. The analyst is openly skeptical she pans out as a long-term UFC fighter.

Strengthkicks to all levels
Strengthdecent takedowns and pretty good takedown defense, aided by athleticism
Weaknessstriking defense is bad
td defense · good
vs Alice Pereira coinflip UFC Fight Night Moicano vs Duncan · March 29, 2026 · 1 read since
strikingdecent grapplingdecent wrestlingdecent cardiogood

picks her almost at random

As of 2026-03-29, her striking earns a decent overall grade, though her guard on the feet draws a weak score; she throws good kicks at every level and her athleticism should let her be the forward-moving, pressuring fighter here. On the mat she is decent -- fine takedowns of her own and a fairly solid takedown defense, both credited partly to that athleticism. The analyst calls this his least confident pick on the card and openly admits he has no real read on who wins.

Strengthgood kicks to all levels
Strengthathletic, likely to press forward
Strengthgood takedown defense
Weaknessstriking defense rated poorly
td defense · good
vs Nora Cornolle lean UFC 314 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · April 8, 2025 · 2 reads since
strikingdecent grapplingdecent wrestlingdecent cardiogood

Names Cornolle outright ('Taking Cornell') and frames her as the clearly superior, busier striker. Still, he grants Cowan a believable takedown-based path to stealing a round or two and waves it off only mildly, then wraps up with a stock disclaimer about his own fallibility. A granted, barely-answered path for the opponent plus a closing disclaimer keeps this below clear.

A decent, kick-heavy striker whose striking defense is a real liability. She compensates with strength and athleticism, mixing in takedowns (also muscled rather than technical) and showing good takedown defense of her own. Coming off a 2-year layoff, so the read may be stale.

Strengthkicks to all levels
Strengthstrength/athleticism
Strengthtakedown defense
Weaknessstriking defense
td defense · good
vs Jamey-Lyn Horth clear UFC Fight Night Song vs Simon Predictions And Full Card Breakdown UFC Vegas 72 · April 25, 2023 · 3 reads since
strikingdecent wrestlingdecent cardiogood

Explicit commitment: he says he is taking Cowan, reasoning from her size/strength edge over a naturally smaller opponent and her ability to grind out rounds on top. No qualifier placed on the win itself.

A true bantamweight built to out-muscle smaller opponents. He frames her as decent on the feet but much more dangerous once it is a size-and-strength contest: decent wrestling with real takedown volume, good takedown defense from a strong, athletic (gymnast) frame, and a plan to bully her way to a decision by grinding on top for 3 rounds.

Strengthdecent striking
Strengthdecent wrestling with real takedown volume
Strengthgood takedown defense (strong/athletic, gymnast background)
Strengthtrue bantamweight size/strength over a naturally smaller opponent
Strengthathletic/strong frame
Weaknessstriking defense described as poor
td defense · good
vs Tamires Vidal lean UFC Fight Night Vera vs Sandhagen Predictions And Full Card Breakdown UFC Fight Night San Antonio · March 21, 2023 · 4 reads since
wrestlinggood cardiogood

He commits repeatedly ('leaning Cowan here', 'Cowan's gonna get this one done') but caps it himself: 'not my most confident pick' -- a qualifier on the win itself, not just method, so this does not reach 'clear'.

An athletic, powerful striker and wrestler who he says is still raw technically ('decent everywhere' but not great at any one thing) given her limited MMA background as a gymnast-turned-fighter. He is explicit that she has improved after every fight and expects her to look even better than her last outing.

Strengthathleticism
Strengthcardio
Strengthpower in striking and wrestling/control
Strengthgood takedown defense
Weaknesstechnically raw / new to MMA ('green as grass')
td defense · good
vs Ailin Perez lean UFC Fight Night Krylov vs Spann Predictions And Full Card Breakdown UFC Vegas 70 · February 21, 2023 · 5 reads since

He names Perez directly ('taking Perez here for... I'm gonna take Perez') but explicitly flags low confidence ('not... confident') on a live underdog price.

An athletic former gymnast who came up through the Contender Series and is described as decent across the board rather than excelling in any one area, with the analyst noting she seems to improve each outing even though she is still developing some things he feels a fighter should already have at the UFC level.

Strengthathletic, gymnastics background
Strengthseems to improve each fight
Weaknessstill developing some basics he feels should be in place before the UFC level

Striking trend

Sig. strikes/min, last 4 fights · green = win
April 29, 2023 vs Jamey-Lyn Horth — 4.2/min (L) Apr '23 April 12, 2025 vs Nora Cornolle — 0.44/min (L) Apr '25 April 4, 2026 vs Alice Pereira — 3.3/min (L) Apr '26 August 1, 2026 vs Nina Milosevic — 3.53/min (L) — only 3.7 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Aug '26

Fight history

4 UFC bouts · newest first · opponent records as of fight night
L Nina Milosevic 0-0 walk-in KO/TKO · R1 3:41 — UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez · August 1, 2026
13/48Sig. strikes
21/39Absorbed
0/2Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Alice Pereira 0-1 walk-in KO/TKO · R2 4:24 — UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · April 4, 2026
31/64Sig. strikes
32/71Absorbed
2/3Takedowns
4:16Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Nora Cornolle 8-2 walk-in Submission · R2 1:52 — UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · April 12, 2025
3/7Sig. strikes
8/12Absorbed
1/2Takedowns
4:24Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Jamey-Lyn Horth 0-0 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon · April 29, 2023
63/150Sig. strikes
76/104Absorbed
2/8Takedowns
4:50Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts

Walk-in records count UFC bouts in this database. For the pre-UFC career, see the record breakdown below or the Tapology button up top.

Record breakdown

UFC bouts in this database
0-4-0UFC record

Wins by method

KO/TKO 0
Submission 0
Decision 0
Other 0

Losses by method

KO/TKO 2
Submission 1
Decision 1
Other 0

Fights by organization

UFC 4

Showing UFC fights only — this fighter's full pre-UFC career hasn't been synced yet. It will fill in as the weekly career backfill reaches them.

Division context

vs. 38 qualified Women's Bantamweight fighters · tick = division mean
Striking volume /min 3.1 avg 3.8
Strikes absorbed /min 3.9 avg 3.8
Striking accuracy 40.9% avg 46.9%
Striking defense 39.4% avg 54.0%
Takedowns /15 min 2.1 avg 1.1
Takedown accuracy 33.3% avg 37.6%
Takedown defense 100.0% avg 61.0%
Sub attempts /15 min 0.0 avg 0.4
Control time 38.6% avg 22.9%

Headshot of Hailey Cowan by UFC · Official UFC athlete photo (copyright UFC; not freely licensed) · Wikimedia Commons · flattened onto dark background, cropped/resized