Gabe Green

Picks Green as the live underdog and expects him to get it done, but the pick itself is qualified with 'unless he gets knocked out', echoing his own earlier doubts about Green's durability moving down in weight.

A capable offensive striker who comes forward with real power, puts punches together and keeps an active jab, but whose defense has let him down badly before, including a quick finish loss. Durability is a question mark on top of that, and dropping down a weight class raises the possibility it gets worse rather than better. On the mat he is a good, active grappler who uses submission attempts to sweep from his back.

States plainly "I'm gonna take Brian Battle," giving a real two-part mechanism (length/striking advantage, and a mat history he reads as better than Green's), and openly flags the pick as contrarian ("I stand alone") rather than hedging the winner itself.

A high-volume boxer who works behind a near-constant jab and comes forward looking for combinations, with real power on the way in. He eats shots doing it -- a striking-defense hole -- but is credited as durable, including through a finish he argues most referees would have stopped sooner given the beating he absorbed. On the ground he has a real submission-based escape game, using attempts like a Kimura to set up a sweep or an armbar hunt to scramble back to his feet or on top. He favors Brian Battle here, picking against the side he says most fans have taken.