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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator
Carlos Hernandez
Flyweight

Carlos Hernandez

3-4-0
Volume Machine Durable Submission-Vulnerable
5'8"Height
67"Reach
OrthodoxStance
33Age
0KO wins
0Sub wins
0%Finish rate
10:13Avg fight

Skill profile

Rated 0–100 · where 138 MMA has read him, his grades and tags set each axis and the stats only nudge inside his band · stats alone where he is silent · the rim is reserved for specialists
Striking — Average, rated 55 of 100 · 138 MMA: striking good · May 2025 · stats read 36 → nudged -7 inside the band · tag pace: high volume (+2) · claims striking volume +1, striking technique +1, kicking +1 (+4) Accuracy — Average, rated 48 of 100 · claims striking technique +1 (+2) Striking D — Below avg, rated 37 of 100 · claims head movement +1, pressure resistance -1 (+0) Durability — Above avg, rated 74 of 100 · 138 MMA tag chin: durable · May 2025 · stats read 37 → nudged -3 inside the band · claims chin +2, pressure resistance -1 (+3) Wrestling — Below avg, rated 42 of 100 · 138 MMA: wrestling decent · Jun 2024 · stats read 72 → nudged +5 inside the band · claims td offense -1 (-2) TD Defense — Below avg, rated 41 of 100 · 138 MMA: wrestling decent (no takedown-defence tag), half-weighted with the stats read 41 · claims td defense -1, getup +2 (+1) Grappling — Average, rated 53 of 100 · 138 MMA whiteboard: grappling good · May 2025 · stats read 20 → nudged -11 inside the band · tag sub threat: good (+3) · claims sub offense +2 (+4) Control — Below avg, rated 39 of 100 · claims top control -2 (-8) Striking Accuracy Striking D Durability Wrestling TD Defense Grappling Control
striking good
5 analyst reads graded this phase
  • good UFC Fight Night: Burns vs Morales Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · May 12, 2025 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Yan vs Figueiredo Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown (UFC Macau) · November 20, 2024 watch ↗
  • good UFC 303 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · June 26, 2024 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Song vs. Gutierrez Full Card Breakdown, Prediction, & Analysis (UFC Vegas 83) · December 5, 2023 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night: Gastelum vs Imavov Full Card Analysis, Preview, and Prediction (UFC Vegas 67) · January 9, 2023 watch ↗
grappling good whiteboard
3 analyst reads graded this phase
  • good UFC Fight Night: Burns vs Morales Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · May 12, 2025 · whiteboard watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Yan vs Figueiredo Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown (UFC Macau) · November 20, 2024 watch ↗
  • decent UFC Fight Night: Gastelum vs Imavov Full Card Analysis, Preview, and Prediction (UFC Vegas 67) · January 9, 2023 watch ↗
wrestling decent
2 analyst reads graded this phase
  • decent UFC 303 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · June 26, 2024 watch ↗
  • decent UFC Fight Night Song vs. Gutierrez Full Card Breakdown, Prediction, & Analysis (UFC Vegas 83) · December 5, 2023 watch ↗
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read
striking good 5 reads
grappling good 3 reads · whiteboard
wrestling decent 2 reads
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read

138 MMA anchors Striking, Durability, Wrestling, Grappling · his tags and claims adjust Accuracy, Striking D, TD Defense, Control.

Built on 71 minutes of tracked cage time across 7 statted fights — every axis is held down until there is more tape, so read this as a sketch rather than a verdict.

Volume Machine 138 MMA · May 2025 tags pace: high volume
Durable above avg durability — rates 74 of 100 · 138 MMA tag chin: durable · May 2025
Submission-Vulnerable 2 of 4 losses came by submission
Career rates — the raw numbers behind the chart
Sig. strikes landed / min3.56
Sig. strikes absorbed / min3.51
Striking accuracy44.7%
Striking defense50.7%
Knockdowns / 15 min0.0
Takedowns / 15 min1.89
Takedown accuracy26.5%
Takedown defense64.0%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.0
Control time17.0%
Record vs .500+ opponents0-2

Insider info

6 analyst reads · 138 MMA · our paraphrase, never his words
vs HyunSung Park clear UFC Fight Night: Burns vs Morales Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · May 12, 2025
strikinggood grapplinggood wrestlingdecent

Says the styles favor Hernandez even while admitting Park could win on pure skill; settles decisively on Hernandez.

A good, durable striker with solid volume, combinations and improving footwork, who can get drawn into wild exchanges when pressured. His grappling has improved: decent takedowns, good scrambles and a dangerous rear naked choke, though his top control remains a long-standing weakness.

Strengthvolume striking and combinations
Strengthdurability
Strengthimproving footwork
Strengthgood scrambles
Strengthdangerous rear naked choke
Weaknesscan be drawn into wild exchanges when pressured
Weaknesspoor top control
chin · durablepace · high volumesub threat · good
vs Nyamjargal Tumendemberel clear UFC Fight Night Yan vs Figueiredo Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown (UFC Macau) · November 20, 2024 · 1 read since
strikinggood grapplinggood wrestlingdecent

He names a specific reason -- trusting the man he knows is durable and has faced higher-level competition -- and commits in first person to the win, with no hedge on who takes it.

A good striker with good volume, combinations, footwork and an underrated kick game, and durable enough to be called 'tougher than a two-dollar steak.' His grappling is also graded good, built on a good rear-naked choke and strong scrambling, though like his opponent he lacks top control. The pick for him rests on his durability and the quality of competition he has already faced.

Strengthgood volume
Strengthcombinations
Strengthunderrated kicks
Strengthfootwork
Strengthdurable
Strengthgood rear-naked choke
Strengthvery good scrambler
Weaknessno good top control
chin · durablecompetition quality · tested
vs Rei Tsuruya clear UFC 303 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · June 26, 2024 · 2 reads since
strikinggood wrestlingdecent grapplingdecent

States 'we're going' Tsuruya plainly; only uncertainty expressed is over the finishing METHOD (decision vs submission), not the winner.

Presumed the better pure striker here by default, since Tsuruya shows almost nothing standing -- good volume, combinations, kicks, and durable. Not lost on the mat either, bringing a credible takedown game of his own plus a genuinely good finishing choke. Analyst still expects Tsuruya's wrestling pace to be too much over the fight.

Strengthgood volume striking with combinations and kicks
Strengthdurable
Strengtha credible takedown game of his own
Strengthgood rear naked choke
Weaknesslikely to be outpaced by Tsuruya's wrestling volume if the fight goes there
chin · durable
vs Tatsuro Taira clear UFC Fight Night Song vs. Gutierrez Full Card Breakdown, Prediction, & Analysis (UFC Vegas 83) · December 5, 2023 · 3 reads since
strikinggood wrestlingdecent grapplingdecent

He states directly that Taira is the better fighter overall and gets the fight to the mat to win it, naming Taira as the pick without any stay-away or price language, despite openly noting Taira's own striking-defense weakness.

Tough and hard to hurt, he fights behind good kicks, combinations and heavy output, happy to absorb punishment so he can land his own; his wrestling is decent, built around a very good rear-naked choke that has worked well on the regional circuit. The analyst views his striking as competitive with Taira's, possibly even a bit deeper, but doubts wrestling is his best path against a clearly superior grappler.

Strengthtough, good striker, good kicks and combos, plenty of volume
Strengthvery durable
Strengthdecent wrestling, very good rear-naked choke
chin · durablesub threat · good
vs Denys Bondar lean UFC Fight Night Vettori vs Cannonier Predictions And Full Card Breakdown (UFC Vegas 75) · June 13, 2023 · 4 reads since
strikinggood grapplingdecent

States plainly that Bondar is the pick and expects him to close it out early, but explicitly worries he may not be the same fighter coming off the long injury layoff -- a real outcome-level doubt, not just a method preference.

A good-volume striker who works combinations and likes his kicks, with wrestling as a secondary mix-in. His takedown defense is not the best, which is a risk given the opponent's clinch/trip game. The analyst thinks he is the better pure striker in this matchup and the 'backup' route to a finish if Bondar underperforms.

StrengthGood striking volume
StrengthCombinations
StrengthLikes his kicks
StrengthHas his own takedown mix-ins
WeaknessTakedown defense not the best
vs Allan Nascimento clear UFC Fight Night: Gastelum vs Imavov Full Card Analysis, Preview, and Prediction (UFC Vegas 67) · January 9, 2023 · 5 reads since
strikinggood grapplingdecent

He names Nascimento directly as his pick ("I'll take" him "here") on an extended technical case -- better jiu-jitsu, better range striking -- and the only hedge present is about the bad price on a heavy favorite, which is wager caution, not a hedge on who wins.

A clean, flush-landing boxer with a real rear-naked-choke finishing habit if the fight hits the mat, but weaker takedowns and, per the analyst, clearly behind Nascimento's jiu-jitsu; his stated path is to close distance and make it a boxing match rather than a kicking-range one.

Strengthgood, clean boxing
Strengthfinishing instinct for the rear naked choke if on top
Weaknesstakedowns are not good
Weaknessjiu-jitsu rated behind Nascimento's
sub threat · good

Striking trend

Sig. strikes/min, last 7 fights · green = win
February 26, 2022 vs Victor Altamirano — 5.6/min (W) Feb '22 January 14, 2023 vs Allan Nascimento — 0.92/min (L) — only 3.3 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Jan '23 June 17, 2023 vs Denys Bondar — 6.81/min (W) Jun '23 December 9, 2023 vs Tatsuro Taira — 0.34/min (L) Dec '23 June 29, 2024 vs Rei Tsuruya — 1.07/min (L) Jun '24 November 23, 2024 vs Nyamjargal Tumendemberel — 2.93/min (W) Nov '24 May 17, 2025 vs HyunSung Park — 1.64/min (L) — only 2.4 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought May '25

Fight history

7 UFC bouts · newest first · opponent records as of fight night
L HyunSung Park 2-0 walk-in Submission · R1 2:26 — UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · May 17, 2025
4/17Sig. strikes
14/22Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Nyamjargal Tumendemberel 0-0 walk-in Decision - Split · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · November 23, 2024
44/105Sig. strikes
26/93Absorbed
4/14Takedowns
4:45Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Rei Tsuruya 0-0 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · June 29, 2024
16/32Sig. strikes
17/32Absorbed
1/2Takedowns
4:29Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Tatsuro Taira 14-0 walk-in KO/TKO · R2 0:55 — UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · December 9, 2023
2/4Sig. strikes
33/43Absorbed
0/2Takedowns
0:53Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Denys Bondar 0-1 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 4:59 — UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier · June 17, 2023
102/233Sig. strikes
76/170Absorbed
2/7Takedowns
0:40Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Allan Nascimento 19-6 walk-in Submission · R1 3:16 — UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · January 14, 2023
3/7Sig. strikes
6/11Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Victor Altamirano 0-0 walk-in Decision - Split · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green · February 26, 2022
84/172Sig. strikes
79/138Absorbed
2/9Takedowns
1:22Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts

Walk-in records count UFC bouts in this database. For the pre-UFC career, see the record breakdown below or the Tapology button up top.

Record breakdown

UFC bouts in this database
3-4-0UFC record

Wins by method

KO/TKO 0
Submission 0
Decision 3
Other 0

Losses by method

KO/TKO 1
Submission 2
Decision 1
Other 0

Fights by organization

UFC 7

Showing UFC fights only — this fighter's full pre-UFC career hasn't been synced yet. It will fill in as the weekly career backfill reaches them.

Division context

vs. 67 qualified Flyweight fighters · tick = division mean
Striking volume /min 3.6 avg 3.4
Strikes absorbed /min 3.5 avg 3.3
Striking accuracy 44.7% avg 44.9%
Striking defense 50.7% avg 56.2%
Takedowns /15 min 1.9 avg 1.7
Takedown accuracy 26.5% avg 36.0%
Takedown defense 64.0% avg 60.8%
Sub attempts /15 min 0.0 avg 0.7
Control time 17.0% avg 19.8%
Finish rate 0.0% avg 45.9%

Headshot of Carlos Hernandez by UFC · Official UFC athlete photo (copyright UFC; not freely licensed) · Wikimedia Commons · flattened onto dark background, cropped/resized