Allan Nascimento

Firm close: "it's Nasento all day" if it hits the mat.

His feet are secondary; the stated path to victory runs through his grappling, which is rated as his true weapon. He brings good sweeps and scrambles, an adept submission game he attacks aggressively, strong positional control and a dangerous back-take. The flaw is defensive -- takedown defense that isn't great and a willingness to sit passively on bottom, which can cost him rounds even if it rarely costs him the whole fight.

Firm pick with reasons ('stylistically, it favors Nascimento... my gosh, is he good'), no qualifier on the win itself.

A decent, forward-moving striker with power whose real game is the grapple: a solid grappler with good sweeps, good scrambles and really good control once he gets a back take, plus a live submission arsenal he actively hunts rather than stalling. His takedown defense is effectively broken, but the analyst says it barely matters because he is comfortable working off his back and threatening sweeps there. The analyst picks him clearly, citing the stylistic matchup and his greater UFC experience.

He commits to Nascimento by submission, but immediately spends more time laying out a full alternate path where Durden out-wrestles and out-points him, calling it "a very real possibility" twice and saying a Durden win is enough to "keep me off" his own pick.

A decent, pressuring striker who also carries real power for his size as a big flyweight. His jiu-jitsu is the bigger weapon -- frustrating to deal with, excellent control, very good sweeps and scrambles, and a submission game he actively hunts with rather than just holds. His takedown defense is not strong, and he will sometimes settle for working from his back rather than scrambling up, though he has shown he can also fight back to top position. As of 2025-10-28.

He names Nascimento but says outright that this is the single least confident call he is making anywhere on the card. That is a first-person declaration of minimum conviction, not an inferred hedge, so it is taken at face value as coinflip despite still being a named pick.

Allan Nascimento has been out of competition for a long stretch, which the analyst flags as a reason this fight is genuinely hard to read. He is a decent striker, leaning on forward pressure and real power, and his jiu-jitsu is where he shines: sweeps and scrambles are available to him even though he undersells them in practice, and he presses a good submission arsenal aggressively. His clearest weakness is a complete lack of takedown defense, and he is sometimes willing to just sit passively on his back rather than work to escape.

He gives direct betting advice, cautioning viewers to probably stay off this one. He says outright that the matchup raises a lot of red flags for him and that he does not feel good about it, right beside the pick itself. He grants the other man a live, unrebutted finishing route, calling him a real threat for a knockout or a clinch-based submission.

He gives a slight nod to Nascimento, seeing him as a touch ahead underneath and the more established of the pair, but the pick is heavily hedged by an extended stretch away from competition (roughly eighteen months) and a vague, hedged mention of possible injuries. He explicitly tells viewers to stay off this fight as a bet.

He names Nascimento directly as his pick ("I'll take" him "here") on an extended technical case -- better jiu-jitsu, better range striking -- and the only hedge present is about the bad price on a heavy favorite, which is wager caution, not a hedge on who wins.

A grappling-heavy flyweight the analyst rates well ahead of Hernandez in jiu-jitsu and range striking, with good Muay Thai at kicking distance; his stated vulnerability is being pressed and having his range taken away by a forward-moving boxer.