Ariane Carnelossi

He forecasts a specific "comfortable decision" (quote, 3 words) with a guessed scorecard, a confident, unhedged call.

Her hands carry real power, though her guard on the feet lags behind it. Grappling is where she does best, yet much of that success is physical rather than technical -- she forces entries by muscling rather than finesse, which costs her energy as rounds wear on. Once there, she gets solid work in pinning opponents to the cage and landing ground-and-pound, but stopping takedowns herself is the weak point of her game. She is described as a fringe-level fighter likely to remain around that level.

He opens the breakdown by flagging this matchup as genuinely hard to call, and after naming Alencar as his pick he adds that this one is "a pass" for him and that he is "staying away."

Technically the sounder pure striker of the two here, per the analyst, though he frames that as a low bar rather than real praise -- decent output with good enough power, helped by being a strong, physical fighter, but her striking defense is not good at all. Offensively a decent grappler who will muscle her way to takedowns on strength rather than technique, with good ground and pound once on top, though her takedown defense is a real problem. As of 2025-10-28.

Stated plainly, 'go with Rodriguez here', restated moments later -- backed by a real mechanism (her takedown defense against Carnelossi's muscle-based offense, plus her own current form against Carnelossi's long absence). Allowing Carnelossi 'could pull one out' is a standard upset caveat, not a hedge on his own conviction.

Described as a physical powerhouse whose offense is built on strength rather than technique -- decent, power-forward striking with weak defense, and a grappling game that muscles takedowns and presses from the cage rather than winning position cleanly. Takedown defense is called poor, and relying on physicality over technique is flagged as a cardio cost. Returning from a long injury layoff.