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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Tom Aspinall vs. Alexander Volkov

UFC 8-1-0 (1 NC) vs. 15-5-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
8-1-0 (1 NC)
UFC record
15-5-0
Heavyweight
Division (benchmark)
Heavyweight
33
AgeΔ 5 yrs
38
6'5"
HeightΔ 2"
6'7"
78"
ReachΔ 2"
80"
Orthodox7-1 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox10-5 vs orthodox fighters
12.3
Layoff (months)Δ 11.9 mo
0.4
NCWWWL
Last 5 (newest first)
WWWLW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Tom Aspinall carries real power — 3.27 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.29 Heavyweight norm.
Tom Aspinall is a submission threat — 1.31 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.17 Heavyweight norm.
Alexander Volkov outworks the Heavyweight division — 5.07 sig. strikes landed per minute, vs a 3.28 norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Tom Aspinall

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 81
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 20
Tier 3 — regional circuit 52

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.61 · 10 tier-1/2 wins · 15 finish wins over 19 documented bouts

In the UFC: 6-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +4.8 wins over .500

Alexander Volkov

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 218
Tier 3 — regional circuit 193

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.34 · 21 tier-1/2 wins · 28 finish wins over 51 documented bouts

In the UFC: 13-5 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +4.2 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

1757.63/min · norm 3.28
Sig. strikes landed
13245.07/min · norm 3.28
833.62/min · norm 3.19
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
8033.08/min · norm 3.19
67.6%norm 47.5%
Striking accuracy
57.1%norm 47.5%
57.0%norm 52.5%
Striking defense
53.8%norm 52.5%
53.27/15 · norm 0.29
Knockdowns
40.23/15 · norm 0.29

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Tom Aspinall

Distance 66.0% (norm 79.2%) · Clinch 9.3% (norm 9.8%) · Ground 24.7% (norm 9.3%)

Alexander Volkov

Distance 88.4% (norm 79.2%) · Clinch 6.8% (norm 9.8%) · Ground 4.8% (norm 9.3%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Tom Aspinall

Head 77.2% (norm 79.2%) · Body 10.0% (norm 11.5%) · Legs 12.7% (norm 7.6%)

Alexander Volkov

Head 70.5% (norm 79.2%) · Body 16.2% (norm 11.5%) · Legs 13.3% (norm 7.6%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Aspinall L/AAccHeavyweight med Volkov L/AAccHeavyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 108 / 171 63.2% 40.1% 1122 / 2049 54.8% 40.1%
In the clinch 17 / 24 too few to rate 70.6% 112 / 158 70.9% 70.6%
On the ground 50 / 64 78.1% 70.2% 90 / 111 81.1% 70.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 119 / 200 59.5% 39.0% 769 / 1634 47.1% 39.0%
To the body 23 / 26 88.5% 77.0% 294 / 375 78.4% 77.0%
To the legs 33 / 33 100.0% 87.8% 261 / 309 84.5% 87.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Heavyweight: 93 fighters · Heavyweight: 93 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Aspinall L/AOpp accHeavyweight med vs Volkov L/AOpp accHeavyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 80 / 186 43.0% 40.7% 642 / 1515 42.4% 40.7%
In the clinch 3 / 6 too few to rate 70.6% 44 / 60 73.3% 70.6%
On the ground 0 / 1 too few to rate 72.2% 117 / 162 72.2% 72.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 34 / 139 24.5% 39.3% 455 / 1265 36.0% 39.3%
To the body 24 / 28 85.7% 75.1% 160 / 240 66.7% 75.1%
To the legs 25 / 26 96.2% 84.4% 188 / 232 81.0% 84.4%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
480.0% acc · 2.62/15 · norm 0.90
Takedowns landed
1062.5% acc · 0.57/15 · norm 0.90
2100.0% def · norm 63.2%
Takedowns stopped
7270.6% def · norm 63.2%
5:0622.2% of cage time · norm 17.2%
Control time
24:559.5% of cage time · norm 17.2%
0:010:00 per 15 · norm 2:28
Time under control lower is better
56:133:13 per 15 · norm 2:28
21.31/15 · norm 0.17
Submission attempts
30.17/15 · norm 0.17

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Volkov has more cage time on record.