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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Teruto Ishihara vs. Petr Yan

UFC 3-5-1 vs. 13-4-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
3-5-1
UFC record
13-4-0
Featherweight
Division (benchmark)
Bantamweight
35
AgeΔ 2 yrs
33
5'7"
HeightΔ 0"
5'7"
69"
ReachΔ 2"
67"
Southpaw0-1 vs switch-stance fighters
Stance
Switch1-0 vs southpaws
92.8
Layoff (months)Δ 92.4 mo
0.4
LLLWL
Last 5 (newest first)
WWWWW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Teruto Ishihara carries real power — 1.33 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.28 Featherweight norm.
Petr Yan carries real power — 0.49 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.29 Bantamweight norm.
Teruto Ishihara rarely shoots — 0.50 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.17 Featherweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Teruto Ishihara

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 35
Tier 3 — regional circuit 1110

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.02 · 3 tier-1/2 wins · 12 finish wins over 32 documented bouts

In the UFC: 1-3 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.3 wins over .500

Petr Yan

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 124
Tier 3 — regional circuit 81

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.41 · 12 tier-1/2 wins · 8 finish wins over 25 documented bouts

In the UFC: 11-4 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +5.8 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

2953.26/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
15845.16/min · norm 3.52
3293.63/min · norm 3.54
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
13284.32/min · norm 3.58
44.7%norm 44.8%
Striking accuracy
55.0%norm 43.5%
53.7%norm 54.8%
Striking defense
60.1%norm 56.6%
81.33/15 · norm 0.28
Knockdowns
100.49/15 · norm 0.29

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Teruto Ishihara

Distance 84.8% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 6.5% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 8.6% (norm 6.4%)

Petr Yan

Distance 83.3% (norm 87.4%) · Clinch 8.4% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 8.3% (norm 6.4%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Teruto Ishihara

Head 73.5% (norm 77.5%) · Body 13.8% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 12.7% (norm 7.9%)

Petr Yan

Head 80.5% (norm 77.5%) · Body 12.3% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 7.2% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Ishihara L/AAccFeatherweight med Yan L/AAccBantamweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 235 / 560 42.0% 40.7% 1201 / 2400 50.0% 39.2%
In the clinch 24 / 43 55.8% 70.5% 187 / 241 77.6% 69.0%
On the ground 36 / 57 63.2% 69.1% 196 / 239 82.0% 70.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 167 / 485 34.4% 37.2% 1103 / 2318 47.6% 35.3%
To the body 52 / 91 57.1% 68.4% 294 / 355 82.8% 66.9%
To the legs 76 / 84 90.5% 80.7% 187 / 207 90.3% 79.2%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Featherweight: 129 fighters · Bantamweight: 121 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Ishihara L/AOpp accFeatherweight med vs Yan L/AOpp accBantamweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 252 / 600 42.0% 39.3% 1189 / 3123 38.1% 39.4%
In the clinch 54 / 74 73.0% 70.3% 108 / 161 67.1% 70.6%
On the ground 23 / 36 63.9% 69.5% 31 / 42 73.8% 72.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 196 / 530 37.0% 35.9% 864 / 2626 32.9% 34.9%
To the body 68 / 98 69.4% 68.1% 278 / 435 63.9% 66.1%
To the legs 65 / 82 79.3% 81.1% 186 / 265 70.2% 78.8%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
316.7% acc · 0.50/15 · norm 1.17
Takedowns landed
3248.5% acc · 1.56/15 · norm 1.12
830.8% def · norm 61.5%
Takedowns stopped
19987.7% def · norm 65.7%
8:319.4% of cage time · norm 16.5%
Control time
42:4213.9% of cage time · norm 17.8%
22:543:47 per 15 · norm 3:11
Time under control lower is better
35:501:45 per 15 · norm 2:24
00.00/15 · norm 0.44
Submission attempts
20.10/15 · norm 0.28

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Yan has more cage time on record.