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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Song Yadong vs. Felipe Arantes

UFC 13-4-1 vs. 5-6-1

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
13-4-1
UFC record
5-6-1
Bantamweight
Division (benchmark)
Featherweight
28
AgeΔ 10 yrs
38
5'8"
HeightΔ 0"
5'8"
67"
ReachΔ 6"
73"
Orthodox10-1-1 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox5-5-1 vs orthodox fighters
2.2
Layoff (months)Δ 98.2 mo
100.4
WWLWL
Last 5 (newest first)
LLLWW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Song Yadong has owned orthodox fighters — 10-1-1 in the UFC (3-3 vs everyone else), and Felipe Arantes is orthodox.
Song Yadong carries real power — 0.53 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.29 Bantamweight norm.
Felipe Arantes is a submission threat — 0.73 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.44 Featherweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Song Yadong

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 125
Tier 3 — regional circuit 114

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.04 · 12 tier-1/2 wins · 13 finish wins over 34 documented bouts

In the UFC: 9-4 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.8 wins over .500

Felipe Arantes

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 56
Tier 3 — regional circuit 134

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.61 · 5 tier-1/2 wins · 13 finish wins over 31 documented bouts

In the UFC: 1-3 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.5 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

9694.26/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
3422.37/min · norm 3.52
8553.76/min · norm 3.58
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
3842.66/min · norm 3.54
43.7%norm 43.5%
Striking accuracy
45.1%norm 44.8%
54.9%norm 56.6%
Striking defense
64.1%norm 54.8%
80.53/15 · norm 0.29
Knockdowns
10.10/15 · norm 0.28

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Song Yadong

Distance 91.4% (norm 87.4%) · Clinch 3.6% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 5.0% (norm 6.4%)

Felipe Arantes

Distance 79.0% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 5.9% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 15.0% (norm 6.4%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Song Yadong

Head 76.5% (norm 77.5%) · Body 12.4% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 11.1% (norm 8.4%)

Felipe Arantes

Head 77.4% (norm 77.5%) · Body 12.8% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 9.8% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Song L/AAccBantamweight med Arantes L/AAccFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 833 / 2027 41.1% 39.2% 239 / 599 39.9% 40.7%
In the clinch 57 / 79 72.2% 69.0% 24 / 45 53.3% 70.5%
On the ground 79 / 111 71.2% 70.2% 79 / 114 69.3% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 592 / 1696 34.9% 35.3% 219 / 587 37.3% 37.2%
To the body 185 / 275 67.3% 66.9% 61 / 97 62.9% 68.4%
To the legs 192 / 246 78.0% 79.2% 62 / 74 83.8% 80.7%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Bantamweight: 121 fighters · Featherweight: 129 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Song L/AOpp accBantamweight med vs Arantes L/AOpp accFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 776 / 1792 43.3% 39.4% 233 / 796 29.3% 39.3%
In the clinch 38 / 52 73.1% 70.6% 42 / 71 59.2% 70.3%
On the ground 41 / 50 82.0% 72.1% 109 / 202 54.0% 69.5%
BY TARGET
To the head 492 / 1397 35.2% 34.9% 224 / 834 26.9% 35.9%
To the body 172 / 263 65.4% 66.1% 116 / 178 65.2% 68.1%
To the legs 191 / 234 81.6% 78.8% 44 / 57 77.2% 81.1%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
1241.4% acc · 0.79/15 · norm 1.12
Takedowns landed
947.4% acc · 0.93/15 · norm 1.17
5073.5% def · norm 65.7%
Takedowns stopped
1741.5% def · norm 61.5%
29:2913.0% of cage time · norm 17.8%
Control time
25:2917.6% of cage time · norm 16.5%
21:091:23 per 15 · norm 2:24
Time under control lower is better
48:395:02 per 15 · norm 3:11
40.26/15 · norm 0.28
Submission attempts
70.73/15 · norm 0.44

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Song has more cage time on record.