Skip to content
UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Shamar Bailey vs. Danny Castillo

UFC 1-2-0 vs. 7-7-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
1-2-0
UFC record
7-7-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
44
AgeΔ 3 yrs
47
5'9"
HeightΔ 0"
5'9"
75"
ReachΔ 4"
71"
Southpaw0-1 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox1-3 vs southpaws
179.5
Layoff (months)Δ 49 mo
130.5
LLW
Last 5 (newest first)
LLLLW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Danny Castillo hunts takedowns — 2.68 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.34 Lightweight norm.
Danny Castillo owns the mat — in control 38% of cage time, vs a 19% Lightweight norm.
Shamar Bailey hunts takedowns — 2.15 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.34 Lightweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Shamar Bailey

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 13
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 01
Tier 3 — regional circuit 157

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.1 · 1 tier-1/2 wins · 8 finish wins over 27 documented bouts

In the UFC: 0-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.7 wins over .500

Danny Castillo

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 77
Tier 3 — regional circuit 103

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.64 · 7 tier-1/2 wins · 10 finish wins over 27 documented bouts

In the UFC: 4-7 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.1 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

712.04/min · norm 3.43
Sig. strikes landed
4712.72/min · norm 3.43
1333.81/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
3692.13/min · norm 3.37
25.4%norm 43.7%
Striking accuracy
43.4%norm 43.7%
72.1%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
61.5%norm 56.3%
00.00/15 · norm 0.23
Knockdowns
20.17/15 · norm 0.23

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Shamar Bailey

Distance 91.0% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 4.3% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 4.7% (norm 8.0%)

Danny Castillo

Distance 72.6% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 7.7% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 19.6% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Shamar Bailey

Head 82.1% (norm 78.1%) · Body 9.0% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 9.0% (norm 8.0%)

Danny Castillo

Head 82.4% (norm 78.1%) · Body 8.6% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 9.0% (norm 8.0%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Bailey L/AAccLightweight med Castillo L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 53 / 254 20.9% 38.4% 267 / 788 33.9% 38.4%
In the clinch 11 / 12 too few to rate 67.5% 72 / 84 85.7% 67.5%
On the ground 7 / 13 too few to rate 69.1% 132 / 213 62.0% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 43 / 229 18.8% 35.3% 312 / 894 34.9% 35.3%
To the body 14 / 25 56.0% 69.2% 70 / 93 75.3% 69.2%
To the legs 14 / 25 56.0% 81.8% 89 / 98 90.8% 81.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 205 fighters · Lightweight: 205 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Bailey L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Castillo L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 110 / 438 25.1% 38.9% 306 / 866 35.3% 38.9%
In the clinch 2 / 5 too few to rate 68.6% 32 / 55 58.2% 68.6%
On the ground 21 / 33 63.6% 68.2% 31 / 38 81.6% 68.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 121 / 452 26.8% 35.2% 185 / 716 25.8% 35.2%
To the body 9 / 19 too few to rate 68.2% 90 / 138 65.2% 68.2%
To the legs 3 / 5 too few to rate 81.5% 94 / 105 89.5% 81.5%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
535.7% acc · 2.15/15 · norm 1.34
Takedowns landed
3134.8% acc · 2.68/15 · norm 1.34
125.0% def · norm 63.2%
Takedowns stopped
2060.6% def · norm 63.2%
9:3327.4% of cage time · norm 19.0%
Control time
65:0337.5% of cage time · norm 19.0%
4:482:03 per 15 · norm 2:50
Time under control lower is better
20:211:45 per 15 · norm 2:50
00.00/15 · norm 0.48
Submission attempts
30.26/15 · norm 0.48

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Castillo has more cage time on record.