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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Sara McMann vs. Alexis Davis

UFC 7-6-0 vs. 8-6-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
7-6-0
UFC record
8-6-0
Women's Bantamweight
Division (benchmark)
Women's Bantamweight
46
AgeΔ 4 yrs
42
5'6"
HeightΔ 0"
5'6"
66"
ReachΔ 2"
68"
Orthodox6-6 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox8-6 vs orthodox fighters
55.3
Layoff (months)Δ 1.6 mo
56.9
WLWLL
Last 5 (newest first)
WLWLL

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Sara McMann hunts takedowns — 3.27 per 15 minutes, vs a 0.93 Women's Bantamweight norm.
Sara McMann owns the mat — in control 57% of cage time, vs a 25% Women's Bantamweight norm.
Alexis Davis is a submission threat — 0.74 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.38 Women's Bantamweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Sara McMann

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 87
Tier 3 — regional circuit 60

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.88 · 8 tier-1/2 wins · 6 finish wins over 21 documented bouts

In the UFC: 3-5 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.3 wins over .500

Alexis Davis

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 86
Tier 3 — regional circuit 135

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.68 · 8 tier-1/2 wins · 10 finish wins over 32 documented bouts

In the UFC: 2-4 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.4 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

2592.09/min · norm 3.56
Sig. strikes landed
7544.16/min · norm 3.56
2552.06/min · norm 3.47
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
7464.12/min · norm 3.47
44.4%norm 46.3%
Striking accuracy
47.4%norm 46.3%
44.1%norm 52.5%
Striking defense
55.1%norm 52.5%
10.12/15 · norm 0.06
Knockdowns
00.00/15 · norm 0.06

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Sara McMann

Distance 59.5% (norm 80.3%) · Clinch 11.5% (norm 9.8%) · Ground 29.0% (norm 6.2%)

Alexis Davis

Distance 83.3% (norm 80.3%) · Clinch 8.7% (norm 9.8%) · Ground 8.0% (norm 6.2%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Sara McMann

Head 78.4% (norm 75.7%) · Body 16.0% (norm 15.5%) · Legs 5.7% (norm 8.4%)

Alexis Davis

Head 69.6% (norm 75.7%) · Body 12.3% (norm 15.5%) · Legs 18.2% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone McMann L/AAccWomen's Bantamweight med Davis L/AAccWomen's Bantamweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 90 / 347 25.9% 38.3% 566 / 1326 42.7% 38.3%
In the clinch 55 / 67 82.1% 75.2% 91 / 138 65.9% 75.2%
On the ground 114 / 169 67.5% 70.8% 97 / 127 76.4% 70.8%
BY TARGET
To the head 166 / 457 36.3% 37.0% 379 / 1107 34.2% 37.0%
To the body 67 / 93 72.0% 71.2% 135 / 195 69.2% 71.2%
To the legs 26 / 33 78.8% 80.8% 240 / 289 83.0% 80.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Women's Bantamweight: 42 fighters · Women's Bantamweight: 42 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs McMann L/AOpp accWomen's Bantamweight med vs Davis L/AOpp accWomen's Bantamweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 109 / 282 38.7% 41.3% 621 / 1505 41.3% 41.3%
In the clinch 55 / 65 84.6% 74.7% 60 / 85 70.6% 74.7%
On the ground 91 / 109 83.5% 74.2% 65 / 71 91.5% 74.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 193 / 384 50.3% 38.1% 550 / 1404 39.2% 38.1%
To the body 43 / 52 82.7% 73.2% 115 / 154 74.7% 73.2%
To the legs 19 / 20 too few to rate 80.7% 81 / 103 78.6% 80.7%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
2756.3% acc · 3.27/15 · norm 0.93
Takedowns landed
1246.2% acc · 0.99/15 · norm 0.93
125.0% def · norm 62.5%
Takedowns stopped
627.3% def · norm 62.5%
70:2156.8% of cage time · norm 25.2%
Control time
57:4831.9% of cage time · norm 25.2%
20:332:29 per 15 · norm 3:20
Time under control lower is better
24:362:02 per 15 · norm 3:20
40.48/15 · norm 0.38
Submission attempts
90.74/15 · norm 0.38

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Davis has more cage time on record.