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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Ricky Simon vs. Merab Dvalishvili

UFC 10-7-1 vs. 14-4-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
10-7-1
UFC record
14-4-0
Bantamweight
Division (benchmark)
Bantamweight
34
AgeΔ 1 yrs
35
5'6"
HeightΔ 0"
5'6"
69"
ReachΔ 1"
68"
Orthodox8-4-1 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox9-2 vs orthodox fighters
1.3
Layoff (months)Δ 0.9 mo
0.4
LDLWW
Last 5 (newest first)
LLWWW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Merab Dvalishvili hunts takedowns — 5.74 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.12 Bantamweight norm.
Ricky Simon hunts takedowns — 3.83 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.12 Bantamweight norm.
Merab Dvalishvili owns the mat — in control 34% of cage time, vs a 18% Bantamweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Ricky Simon

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 116
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 20
Tier 3 — regional circuit 91

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.18 · 13 tier-1/2 wins · 11 finish wins over 30 documented bouts

In the UFC: 6-7 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.2 wins over .500

Merab Dvalishvili

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 143
Tier 3 — regional circuit 72

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.37 · 14 tier-1/2 wins · 5 finish wins over 26 documented bouts

In the UFC: 12-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +4.1 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

6642.97/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
14534.48/min · norm 3.52
8954.01/min · norm 3.58
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
9662.98/min · norm 3.58
41.6%norm 43.5%
Striking accuracy
41.0%norm 43.5%
60.0%norm 56.6%
Striking defense
52.9%norm 56.6%
50.34/15 · norm 0.29
Knockdowns
10.05/15 · norm 0.29

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Ricky Simon

Distance 89.0% (norm 87.4%) · Clinch 4.5% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 6.4% (norm 6.4%)

Merab Dvalishvili

Distance 79.4% (norm 87.4%) · Clinch 8.5% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 12.2% (norm 6.4%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Ricky Simon

Head 83.8% (norm 77.5%) · Body 9.4% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 6.8% (norm 8.4%)

Merab Dvalishvili

Head 81.7% (norm 77.5%) · Body 9.9% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 8.4% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Simon L/AAccBantamweight med Dvalishvili L/AAccBantamweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 533 / 1423 37.5% 39.2% 963 / 2813 34.2% 39.2%
In the clinch 56 / 72 77.8% 69.0% 206 / 300 68.7% 69.0%
On the ground 75 / 103 72.8% 70.2% 284 / 431 65.9% 70.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 458 / 1339 34.2% 35.3% 980 / 2895 33.9% 35.3%
To the body 109 / 151 72.2% 66.9% 237 / 352 67.3% 66.9%
To the legs 97 / 108 89.8% 79.2% 236 / 297 79.5% 79.2%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Bantamweight: 121 fighters · Bantamweight: 121 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Simon L/AOpp accBantamweight med vs Dvalishvili L/AOpp accBantamweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 813 / 2104 38.6% 39.4% 816 / 1837 44.4% 39.4%
In the clinch 41 / 67 61.2% 70.6% 125 / 185 67.6% 70.6%
On the ground 41 / 65 63.1% 72.1% 25 / 29 86.2% 72.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 608 / 1857 32.7% 34.9% 588 / 1565 37.6% 34.9%
To the body 183 / 245 74.7% 66.1% 243 / 328 74.1% 66.1%
To the legs 104 / 134 77.6% 78.8% 135 / 158 85.4% 78.8%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
5738.0% acc · 3.83/15 · norm 1.12
Takedowns landed
12431.3% acc · 5.74/15 · norm 1.12
4178.8% def · norm 65.7%
Takedowns stopped
3976.5% def · norm 65.7%
64:1428.8% of cage time · norm 17.8%
Control time
109:1933.7% of cage time · norm 17.8%
6:100:24 per 15 · norm 2:24
Time under control lower is better
16:080:44 per 15 · norm 2:24
40.27/15 · norm 0.28
Submission attempts
70.32/15 · norm 0.28

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Simon has more cage time on record.