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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Ricardo Lamas vs. Matt Grice

UFC 11-6-0 vs. 2-5-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
11-6-0
UFC record
2-5-0
Featherweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
44
AgeΔ 1 yrs
45
5'8"
HeightΔ 0"
5'8"
71"
ReachΔ 1"
70"
Orthodox8-6 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox2-5 vs orthodox fighters
74.2
Layoff (months)Δ 90.2 mo
164.4
WLWLL
Last 5 (newest first)
LWLLL

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Matt Grice carries real power — 0.73 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.23 Lightweight norm.
Matt Grice owns the mat — in control 50% of cage time, vs a 19% Lightweight norm.
Ricardo Lamas is a submission threat — 0.86 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.44 Featherweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Ricardo Lamas

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 116
Tier 3 — regional circuit 92

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.07 · 11 tier-1/2 wins · 11 finish wins over 28 documented bouts

In the UFC: 7-6 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.3 wins over .500

Matt Grice

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 25
Tier 3 — regional circuit 130

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.81 · 2 tier-1/2 wins · 10 finish wins over 20 documented bouts

In the UFC: 0-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record -0.3 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

6003.43/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
2524.09/min · norm 3.43
5503.14/min · norm 3.54
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
1662.69/min · norm 3.37
49.5%norm 44.8%
Striking accuracy
53.4%norm 43.7%
56.7%norm 54.8%
Striking defense
56.1%norm 56.3%
20.17/15 · norm 0.28
Knockdowns
30.73/15 · norm 0.23

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Ricardo Lamas

Distance 78.5% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 10.2% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 11.3% (norm 6.4%)

Matt Grice

Distance 36.7% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 21.2% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 42.2% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Ricardo Lamas

Head 66.6% (norm 77.5%) · Body 12.8% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 20.6% (norm 7.9%)

Matt Grice

Head 83.5% (norm 78.1%) · Body 9.3% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 7.2% (norm 8.0%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Lamas L/AAccFeatherweight med Grice L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 392 / 951 41.2% 40.7% 68 / 173 39.3% 38.4%
In the clinch 110 / 123 89.4% 70.5% 59 / 100 59.0% 67.5%
On the ground 98 / 137 71.5% 69.1% 125 / 199 62.8% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 295 / 807 36.6% 37.2% 196 / 394 49.7% 35.3%
To the body 125 / 155 80.6% 68.4% 33 / 44 75.0% 69.2%
To the legs 180 / 249 72.3% 80.7% 23 / 34 67.6% 81.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Featherweight: 129 fighters · Lightweight: 205 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Lamas L/AOpp accFeatherweight med vs Grice L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 406 / 1077 37.7% 39.3% 67 / 231 29.0% 38.9%
In the clinch 95 / 135 70.4% 70.3% 49 / 80 61.2% 68.6%
On the ground 49 / 59 83.1% 69.5% 50 / 67 74.6% 68.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 357 / 994 35.9% 35.9% 120 / 307 39.1% 35.2%
To the body 120 / 180 66.7% 68.1% 23 / 40 57.5% 68.2%
To the legs 73 / 97 75.3% 81.1% 23 / 31 74.2% 81.5%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
2130.9% acc · 1.80/15 · norm 1.17
Takedowns landed
937.5% acc · 2.19/15 · norm 1.34
1341.9% def · norm 61.5%
Takedowns stopped
1482.4% def · norm 63.2%
40:0522.9% of cage time · norm 16.5%
Control time
30:3949.7% of cage time · norm 19.0%
38:043:15 per 15 · norm 3:11
Time under control lower is better
10:552:39 per 15 · norm 2:50
100.86/15 · norm 0.44
Submission attempts
20.49/15 · norm 0.48

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Lamas has more cage time on record.