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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Renato Moicano vs. Jai Herbert

UFC 13-8-0 vs. 5-5-1

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
13-8-0
UFC record
5-5-1
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
37
AgeΔ 1 yrs
38
5'11"
HeightΔ 2"
6'1"
72"
ReachΔ 5"
77"
Orthodox10-2 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox4-4 vs orthodox fighters
0.2
Layoff (months)Δ 0.7 mo
0.9
LWLLW
Last 5 (newest first)
WWLWL

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Renato Moicano has owned orthodox fighters — 10-2 in the UFC (3-6 vs everyone else), and Jai Herbert is orthodox.
Jai Herbert carries real power — 0.74 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.23 Lightweight norm.
Jai Herbert rarely shoots — 0.37 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.34 Lightweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Renato Moicano

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 137
Tier 3 — regional circuit 80

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.29 · 13 tier-1/2 wins · 13 finish wins over 29 documented bouts

In the UFC: 9-8 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.6 wins over .500

Jai Herbert

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 45
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 50
Tier 3 — regional circuit 51

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.97 · 9 tier-1/2 wins · 11 finish wins over 21 documented bouts

In the UFC: 1-5 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.4 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

7803.91/min · norm 3.43
Sig. strikes landed
3953.24/min · norm 3.43
7373.69/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
4013.29/min · norm 3.37
49.4%norm 43.7%
Striking accuracy
40.4%norm 43.7%
57.9%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
52.7%norm 56.3%
20.15/15 · norm 0.23
Knockdowns
60.74/15 · norm 0.23

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Renato Moicano

Distance 88.1% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 2.1% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 9.8% (norm 8.0%)

Jai Herbert

Distance 88.6% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 6.7% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 4.7% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Renato Moicano

Head 82.4% (norm 78.1%) · Body 7.6% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 10.0% (norm 8.0%)

Jai Herbert

Head 74.9% (norm 78.1%) · Body 16.4% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 8.7% (norm 8.0%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Moicano L/AAccLightweight med Herbert L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 645 / 1391 46.4% 38.4% 311 / 866 35.9% 38.4%
In the clinch 25 / 33 75.8% 67.5% 56 / 65 86.2% 67.5%
On the ground 110 / 155 71.0% 69.1% 28 / 46 60.9% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 566 / 1301 43.5% 35.3% 207 / 732 28.3% 35.3%
To the body 80 / 120 66.7% 69.2% 119 / 160 74.4% 69.2%
To the legs 134 / 158 84.8% 81.8% 69 / 85 81.2% 81.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 205 fighters · Lightweight: 205 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Moicano L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Herbert L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 584 / 1547 37.8% 38.9% 300 / 717 41.8% 38.9%
In the clinch 30 / 39 76.9% 68.6% 60 / 75 80.0% 68.6%
On the ground 123 / 163 75.5% 68.2% 41 / 55 74.5% 68.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 475 / 1409 33.7% 35.2% 223 / 590 37.8% 35.2%
To the body 133 / 187 71.1% 68.2% 76 / 114 66.7% 68.2%
To the legs 129 / 153 84.3% 81.5% 102 / 143 71.3% 81.5%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
2442.1% acc · 1.80/15 · norm 1.34
Takedowns landed
320.0% acc · 0.37/15 · norm 1.34
2762.8% def · norm 63.2%
Takedowns stopped
2464.9% def · norm 63.2%
48:2824.3% of cage time · norm 19.0%
Control time
20:3916.9% of cage time · norm 19.0%
25:521:56 per 15 · norm 2:50
Time under control lower is better
29:073:34 per 15 · norm 2:50
80.60/15 · norm 0.48
Submission attempts
00.00/15 · norm 0.48

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Moicano has more cage time on record.