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UFC simulation vs. the market Fight

Renato Moicano vs. Islam Makhachev

UFC 13-8-0 vs. 18-1-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
13-8-0
UFC record
18-1-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
37
AgeΔ 2 yrs
35
5'11"
HeightΔ 1"
5'10"
72"
ReachΔ 2"
70"
Orthodox3-4 vs southpaws
Stance
Southpaw13-0 vs orthodox fighters
0.2
Layoff (months)Δ 2.5 mo
2.7
LWLLW
Last 5 (newest first)
WWWWW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Islam Makhachev owns the mat — in control 51% of cage time, vs a 19% Lightweight norm.
Islam Makhachev hunts takedowns — 3.22 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.34 Lightweight norm.
Renato Moicano hunts takedowns — 1.80 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.34 Lightweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Renato Moicano

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 137
Tier 3 — regional circuit 80

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.29 · 13 tier-1/2 wins · 13 finish wins over 29 documented bouts

In the UFC: 9-8 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.6 wins over .500

Islam Makhachev

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 171
Tier 3 — regional circuit 110

Tier-weighted record quality: 2.04 · 17 tier-1/2 wins · 18 finish wins over 29 documented bouts

In the UFC: 16-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +6.0 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

7803.91/min · norm 3.43
Sig. strikes landed
5072.27/min · norm 3.43
7373.69/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
3161.42/min · norm 3.37
49.4%norm 43.7%
Striking accuracy
58.0%norm 43.7%
57.9%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
61.5%norm 56.3%
20.15/15 · norm 0.23
Knockdowns
50.34/15 · norm 0.23

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Renato Moicano

Distance 88.1% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 2.1% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 9.8% (norm 8.0%)

Islam Makhachev

Distance 69.0% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 12.8% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 18.2% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Renato Moicano

Head 82.4% (norm 78.1%) · Body 7.6% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 10.0% (norm 8.0%)

Islam Makhachev

Head 80.4% (norm 78.1%) · Body 15.0% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 4.6% (norm 8.0%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Moicano L/AAccLightweight med Makhachev L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 645 / 1391 46.4% 38.4% 293 / 603 48.6% 38.4%
In the clinch 25 / 33 75.8% 67.5% 95 / 112 84.8% 67.5%
On the ground 110 / 155 71.0% 69.1% 119 / 159 74.8% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 566 / 1301 43.5% 35.3% 353 / 703 50.2% 35.3%
To the body 80 / 120 66.7% 69.2% 117 / 131 89.3% 69.2%
To the legs 134 / 158 84.8% 81.8% 37 / 40 92.5% 81.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 205 fighters · Lightweight: 205 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Moicano L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Makhachev L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 584 / 1547 37.8% 38.9% 228 / 707 32.2% 38.9%
In the clinch 30 / 39 76.9% 68.6% 69 / 84 82.1% 68.6%
On the ground 123 / 163 75.5% 68.2% 19 / 29 65.5% 68.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 475 / 1409 33.7% 35.2% 150 / 566 26.5% 35.2%
To the body 133 / 187 71.1% 68.2% 110 / 178 61.8% 68.2%
To the legs 129 / 153 84.3% 81.5% 56 / 76 73.7% 81.5%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
2442.1% acc · 1.80/15 · norm 1.34
Takedowns landed
4854.5% acc · 3.22/15 · norm 1.34
2762.8% def · norm 63.2%
Takedowns stopped
2191.3% def · norm 63.2%
48:2824.3% of cage time · norm 19.0%
Control time
113:5851.0% of cage time · norm 19.0%
25:521:56 per 15 · norm 2:50
Time under control lower is better
15:521:03 per 15 · norm 2:50
80.60/15 · norm 0.48
Submission attempts
130.87/15 · norm 0.48

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Moicano has more cage time on record.