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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Randy Brown vs. Nicolas Dalby

UFC 14-9-0 vs. 8-5-1 (1 NC)

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
14-9-0
UFC record
8-5-1 (1 NC)
Welterweight
Division (benchmark)
Welterweight
36
AgeΔ 5 yrs
41
6'3"
HeightΔ 4"
5'11"
78"
ReachΔ 4"
74"
Orthodox11-7 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox5-3 vs orthodox fighters
0.1
Layoff (months)Δ 11.3 mo
11.4
LLLWL
Last 5 (newest first)
WLLWW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Randy Brown rarely shoots — 0.67 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.31 Welterweight norm.
Randy Brown outworks the Welterweight division — 4.19 sig. strikes landed per minute, vs a 3.17 norm.
Nicolas Dalby rarely shoots — 0.90 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.31 Welterweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Randy Brown

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 148
Tier 3 — regional circuit 60

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.28 · 14 tier-1/2 wins · 13 finish wins over 28 documented bouts

In the UFC: 10-8 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.9 wins over .500

Nicolas Dalby

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 85
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 51
Tier 3 — regional circuit 110

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.14 · 13 tier-1/2 wins · 11 finish wins over 33 documented bouts

In the UFC: 6-4 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.1 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

10324.19/min · norm 3.17
Sig. strikes landed
7723.88/min · norm 3.17
8153.31/min · norm 3.08
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
6993.51/min · norm 3.08
47.0%norm 44.75%
Striking accuracy
43.5%norm 44.75%
53.0%norm 55.25%
Striking defense
52.2%norm 55.25%
60.37/15 · norm 0.38
Knockdowns
20.15/15 · norm 0.38

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Randy Brown

Distance 86.1% (norm 80.7%) · Clinch 8.7% (norm 9.6%) · Ground 5.2% (norm 8.1%)

Nicolas Dalby

Distance 76.7% (norm 80.7%) · Clinch 18.4% (norm 9.6%) · Ground 5.0% (norm 8.1%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Randy Brown

Head 76.2% (norm 78.3%) · Body 13.6% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 10.2% (norm 8.0%)

Nicolas Dalby

Head 74.2% (norm 78.3%) · Body 16.5% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 9.4% (norm 8.0%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Brown L/AAccWelterweight med Dalby L/AAccWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 800 / 1890 42.3% 38.5% 477 / 1360 35.1% 38.5%
In the clinch 154 / 190 81.1% 67.8% 236 / 326 72.4% 67.8%
On the ground 78 / 115 67.8% 67.0% 59 / 88 67.0% 67.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 636 / 1673 38.0% 36.4% 458 / 1316 34.8% 36.4%
To the body 216 / 299 72.2% 70.7% 188 / 292 64.4% 70.7%
To the legs 180 / 223 80.7% 83.1% 126 / 166 75.9% 83.1%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Welterweight: 180 fighters · Welterweight: 180 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Brown L/AOpp accWelterweight med vs Dalby L/AOpp accWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 614 / 1447 42.4% 39.1% 557 / 1253 44.5% 39.1%
In the clinch 106 / 143 74.1% 68.9% 91 / 123 74.0% 68.9%
On the ground 95 / 144 66.0% 68.0% 51 / 87 58.6% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 322 / 1101 29.2% 35.6% 450 / 1143 39.4% 35.6%
To the body 150 / 211 71.1% 69.6% 150 / 210 71.4% 69.6%
To the legs 343 / 422 81.3% 82.1% 99 / 110 90.0% 82.1%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
1134.4% acc · 0.67/15 · norm 1.31
Takedowns landed
1226.7% acc · 0.90/15 · norm 1.31
4771.2% def · norm 63.9%
Takedowns stopped
3959.1% def · norm 63.9%
36:4614.9% of cage time · norm 18.5%
Control time
45:3722.9% of cage time · norm 18.5%
73:154:27 per 15 · norm 3:15
Time under control lower is better
54:314:06 per 15 · norm 3:15
80.49/15 · norm 0.44
Submission attempts
10.08/15 · norm 0.44

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Brown has more cage time on record.