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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Randy Brown vs. Matt Dwyer

UFC 14-9-0 vs. 1-3-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
14-9-0
UFC record
1-3-0
Welterweight
Division (benchmark)
Welterweight
36
AgeΔ 0 yrs
36
6'3"
HeightΔ 1"
6'4"
78"
ReachΔ 2"
76"
Orthodox11-7 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox1-2 vs orthodox fighters
0.1
Layoff (months)Δ 129 mo
129.1
LLLWL
Last 5 (newest first)
LLWL

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Matt Dwyer carries real power — 0.88 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.38 Welterweight norm.
Matt Dwyer rarely shoots — 0.44 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.31 Welterweight norm.
Randy Brown rarely shoots — 0.67 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.31 Welterweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Randy Brown

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 148
Tier 3 — regional circuit 60

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.28 · 14 tier-1/2 wins · 13 finish wins over 28 documented bouts

In the UFC: 10-8 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.9 wins over .500

Matt Dwyer

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 13
Tier 3 — regional circuit 106

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.16 · 1 tier-1/2 wins · 9 finish wins over 20 documented bouts

In the UFC: 0-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.0 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

10324.19/min · norm 3.17
Sig. strikes landed
882.57/min · norm 3.17
8153.31/min · norm 3.08
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
1113.24/min · norm 3.08
47.0%norm 44.75%
Striking accuracy
34.2%norm 44.75%
53.0%norm 55.25%
Striking defense
54.5%norm 55.25%
60.37/15 · norm 0.38
Knockdowns
20.88/15 · norm 0.38

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Randy Brown

Distance 86.1% (norm 80.7%) · Clinch 8.7% (norm 9.6%) · Ground 5.2% (norm 8.1%)

Matt Dwyer

Distance 84.8% (norm 80.7%) · Clinch 11.3% (norm 9.6%) · Ground 3.9% (norm 8.1%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Randy Brown

Head 76.2% (norm 78.3%) · Body 13.6% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 10.2% (norm 8.0%)

Matt Dwyer

Head 74.3% (norm 78.3%) · Body 12.8% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 12.8% (norm 8.0%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Brown L/AAccWelterweight med Dwyer L/AAccWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 800 / 1890 42.3% 38.5% 65 / 218 29.8% 38.5%
In the clinch 154 / 190 81.1% 67.8% 18 / 29 62.1% 67.8%
On the ground 78 / 115 67.8% 67.0% 5 / 10 too few to rate 67.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 636 / 1673 38.0% 36.4% 49 / 191 25.7% 36.4%
To the body 216 / 299 72.2% 70.7% 13 / 33 39.4% 70.7%
To the legs 180 / 223 80.7% 83.1% 26 / 33 78.8% 83.1%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Welterweight: 180 fighters · Welterweight: 180 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Brown L/AOpp accWelterweight med vs Dwyer L/AOpp accWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 614 / 1447 42.4% 39.1% 69 / 178 38.8% 39.1%
In the clinch 106 / 143 74.1% 68.9% 30 / 44 68.2% 68.9%
On the ground 95 / 144 66.0% 68.0% 12 / 22 too few to rate 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 322 / 1101 29.2% 35.6% 67 / 178 37.6% 35.6%
To the body 150 / 211 71.1% 69.6% 21 / 32 65.6% 69.6%
To the legs 343 / 422 81.3% 82.1% 23 / 34 67.6% 82.1%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
1134.4% acc · 0.67/15 · norm 1.31
Takedowns landed
110.0% acc · 0.44/15 · norm 1.31
4771.2% def · norm 63.9%
Takedowns stopped
360.0% def · norm 63.9%
36:4614.9% of cage time · norm 18.5%
Control time
3:129.3% of cage time · norm 18.5%
73:154:27 per 15 · norm 3:15
Time under control lower is better
6:242:48 per 15 · norm 3:15
80.49/15 · norm 0.44
Submission attempts
00.00/15 · norm 0.44

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Brown has more cage time on record.