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UFC simulation vs. the market Fight

Petr Yan vs. Jose Aldo

UFC 13-4-0 vs. 14-9-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
13-4-0
UFC record
14-9-0
Bantamweight
Division (benchmark)
Featherweight
33
AgeΔ 7 yrs
40
5'7"
HeightΔ 0"
5'7"
67"
ReachΔ 3"
70"
Switch11-3 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox1-2 vs switch-stance fighters
0.4
Layoff (months)Δ 17.5 mo
17.9
WWWWW
Last 5 (newest first)
LLWLW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Petr Yan carries real power — 0.49 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.29 Bantamweight norm.
Jose Aldo rarely shoots — 0.51 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.17 Featherweight norm.
Petr Yan outworks the Bantamweight division — 5.16 sig. strikes landed per minute, vs a 3.52 norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Petr Yan

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 124
Tier 3 — regional circuit 81

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.41 · 12 tier-1/2 wins · 8 finish wins over 25 documented bouts

In the UFC: 11-4 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +5.8 wins over .500

Jose Aldo

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 149
Tier 3 — regional circuit 181

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.13 · 14 tier-1/2 wins · 18 finish wins over 42 documented bouts

In the UFC: 14-9 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +5.5 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

15845.16/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
13543.57/min · norm 3.52
13284.32/min · norm 3.58
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
16004.21/min · norm 3.54
55.0%norm 43.5%
Striking accuracy
45.3%norm 44.8%
60.1%norm 56.6%
Striking defense
58.4%norm 54.8%
100.49/15 · norm 0.29
Knockdowns
70.28/15 · norm 0.28

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Petr Yan

Distance 83.3% (norm 87.4%) · Clinch 8.4% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 8.3% (norm 6.4%)

Jose Aldo

Distance 93.6% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 2.3% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 4.0% (norm 6.4%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Petr Yan

Head 80.5% (norm 77.5%) · Body 12.3% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 7.2% (norm 8.4%)

Jose Aldo

Head 79.8% (norm 77.5%) · Body 13.9% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 6.2% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Yan L/AAccBantamweight med Aldo L/AAccFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 1201 / 2400 50.0% 39.2% 1220 / 2802 43.5% 40.7%
In the clinch 187 / 241 77.6% 69.0% 56 / 69 81.2% 70.5%
On the ground 196 / 239 82.0% 70.2% 78 / 121 64.5% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 1103 / 2318 47.6% 35.3% 913 / 2389 38.2% 37.2%
To the body 294 / 355 82.8% 66.9% 280 / 416 67.3% 68.4%
To the legs 187 / 207 90.3% 79.2% 161 / 187 86.1% 80.7%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Bantamweight: 121 fighters · Featherweight: 129 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Yan L/AOpp accBantamweight med vs Aldo L/AOpp accFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 1189 / 3123 38.1% 39.4% 1242 / 3376 36.8% 39.3%
In the clinch 108 / 161 67.1% 70.6% 153 / 189 81.0% 70.3%
On the ground 31 / 42 73.8% 72.1% 205 / 277 74.0% 69.5%
BY TARGET
To the head 864 / 2626 32.9% 34.9% 991 / 2993 33.1% 35.9%
To the body 278 / 435 63.9% 66.1% 289 / 433 66.7% 68.1%
To the legs 186 / 265 70.2% 78.8% 320 / 416 76.9% 81.1%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
3248.5% acc · 1.56/15 · norm 1.12
Takedowns landed
1350.0% acc · 0.51/15 · norm 1.17
19987.7% def · norm 65.7%
Takedowns stopped
9891.6% def · norm 61.5%
42:4213.9% of cage time · norm 17.8%
Control time
44:0611.6% of cage time · norm 16.5%
35:501:45 per 15 · norm 2:24
Time under control lower is better
52:302:04 per 15 · norm 3:11
20.10/15 · norm 0.28
Submission attempts
40.16/15 · norm 0.44

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Aldo has more cage time on record.