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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Ode Osbourne vs. Brian Kelleher

UFC 5-9-0 vs. 8-9-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
5-9-0
UFC record
8-9-0
Flyweight
Division (benchmark)
Bantamweight
34
AgeΔ 6 yrs
40
5'7"
HeightΔ 1"
5'6"
73"
ReachΔ 7"
66"
Southpaw1-1 vs switch-stance fighters
Stance
Switch3-1 vs southpaws
0.1
Layoff (months)Δ 27.4 mo
27.5
LLLWL
Last 5 (newest first)
LLLLW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Ode Osbourne carries real power — 0.49 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.18 Flyweight norm.
Brian Kelleher is a submission threat — 0.67 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.28 Bantamweight norm.
Brian Kelleher hunts takedowns — 1.68 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.12 Bantamweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Ode Osbourne

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 67
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 01
Tier 3 — regional circuit 71

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.6 · 6 tier-1/2 wins · 10 finish wins over 24 documented bouts

In the UFC: 1-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record -0.5 wins over .500

Brian Kelleher

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 811
Tier 3 — regional circuit 165

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.52 · 8 tier-1/2 wins · 18 finish wins over 40 documented bouts

In the UFC: 3-7 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.4 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

3222.65/min · norm 3.48
Sig. strikes landed
4423.31/min · norm 3.52
3803.13/min · norm 3.24
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
6144.59/min · norm 3.58
40.5%norm 44.6%
Striking accuracy
41.4%norm 43.5%
47.7%norm 56.4%
Striking defense
54.6%norm 56.6%
40.49/15 · norm 0.18
Knockdowns
30.34/15 · norm 0.29

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Ode Osbourne

Distance 91.6% (norm 85.1%) · Clinch 2.1% (norm 6.0%) · Ground 6.3% (norm 7.5%)

Brian Kelleher

Distance 87.7% (norm 87.4%) · Clinch 4.0% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 8.2% (norm 6.4%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Ode Osbourne

Head 80.2% (norm 75.9%) · Body 11.9% (norm 13.0%) · Legs 7.9% (norm 9.3%)

Brian Kelleher

Head 76.3% (norm 77.5%) · Body 13.2% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 10.5% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Osbourne L/AAccFlyweight med Kelleher L/AAccBantamweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 269 / 729 36.9% 39.9% 345 / 937 36.8% 39.2%
In the clinch 13 / 17 too few to rate 70.1% 29 / 43 67.4% 69.0%
On the ground 40 / 50 80.0% 71.1% 68 / 88 77.3% 70.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 207 / 638 32.4% 37.6% 288 / 815 35.3% 35.3%
To the body 66 / 95 69.5% 68.7% 67 / 141 47.5% 66.9%
To the legs 49 / 63 77.8% 79.7% 87 / 112 77.7% 79.2%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Flyweight: 73 fighters · Bantamweight: 121 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Osbourne L/AOpp accFlyweight med vs Kelleher L/AOpp accBantamweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 225 / 505 44.6% 39.9% 519 / 1217 42.6% 39.4%
In the clinch 42 / 61 68.9% 68.8% 64 / 93 68.8% 70.6%
On the ground 113 / 161 70.2% 70.4% 31 / 43 72.1% 72.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 226 / 514 44.0% 35.4% 399 / 1044 38.2% 34.9%
To the body 87 / 127 68.5% 67.9% 130 / 201 64.7% 66.1%
To the legs 67 / 86 77.9% 79.7% 85 / 108 78.7% 78.8%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
626.1% acc · 0.74/15 · norm 1.30
Takedowns landed
1541.7% acc · 1.68/15 · norm 1.12
3159.6% def · norm 61.2%
Takedowns stopped
2460.0% def · norm 65.7%
11:249.4% of cage time · norm 17.0%
Control time
34:1325.6% of cage time · norm 17.8%
44:065:26 per 15 · norm 2:46
Time under control lower is better
24:262:44 per 15 · norm 2:24
30.37/15 · norm 0.58
Submission attempts
60.67/15 · norm 0.28

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Kelleher has more cage time on record.