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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Ode Osbourne vs. Asu Almabayev

UFC 5-9-0 vs. 7-1-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
5-9-0
UFC record
7-1-0
Flyweight
Division (benchmark)
Flyweight
34
AgeΔ 2 yrs
32
5'7"
HeightΔ 3"
5'4"
73"
ReachΔ 8"
65"
Southpaw2-6 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox2-1 vs southpaws
0.1
Layoff (months)Δ 4.2 mo
4.3
LLLWL
Last 5 (newest first)
WWWLW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Asu Almabayev hunts takedowns — 4.74 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.30 Flyweight norm.
Asu Almabayev owns the mat — in control 49% of cage time, vs a 17% Flyweight norm.
Ode Osbourne carries real power — 0.49 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.18 Flyweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Ode Osbourne

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 67
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 01
Tier 3 — regional circuit 71

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.6 · 6 tier-1/2 wins · 10 finish wins over 24 documented bouts

In the UFC: 1-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record -0.5 wins over .500

Asu Almabayev

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 71
Tier 3 — regional circuit 172

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.32 · 7 tier-1/2 wins · 14 finish wins over 27 documented bouts

In the UFC: 5-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.5 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

3222.65/min · norm 3.48
Sig. strikes landed
2382.28/min · norm 3.48
3803.13/min · norm 3.24
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
2021.94/min · norm 3.24
40.5%norm 44.6%
Striking accuracy
51.4%norm 44.6%
47.7%norm 56.4%
Striking defense
53.8%norm 56.4%
40.49/15 · norm 0.18
Knockdowns
10.14/15 · norm 0.18

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Ode Osbourne

Distance 91.6% (norm 85.1%) · Clinch 2.1% (norm 6.0%) · Ground 6.3% (norm 7.5%)

Asu Almabayev

Distance 73.2% (norm 85.1%) · Clinch 7.3% (norm 6.0%) · Ground 19.4% (norm 7.5%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Ode Osbourne

Head 80.2% (norm 75.9%) · Body 11.9% (norm 13.0%) · Legs 7.9% (norm 9.3%)

Asu Almabayev

Head 71.3% (norm 75.9%) · Body 16.4% (norm 13.0%) · Legs 12.3% (norm 9.3%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Osbourne L/AAccFlyweight med Almabayev L/AAccFlyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 269 / 729 36.9% 39.9% 154 / 339 45.4% 39.9%
In the clinch 13 / 17 too few to rate 70.1% 24 / 34 70.6% 70.1%
On the ground 40 / 50 80.0% 71.1% 60 / 90 66.7% 71.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 207 / 638 32.4% 37.6% 128 / 330 38.8% 37.6%
To the body 66 / 95 69.5% 68.7% 58 / 76 76.3% 68.7%
To the legs 49 / 63 77.8% 79.7% 52 / 57 91.2% 79.7%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Flyweight: 73 fighters · Flyweight: 73 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Osbourne L/AOpp accFlyweight med vs Almabayev L/AOpp accFlyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 225 / 505 44.6% 39.9% 154 / 371 41.5% 39.9%
In the clinch 42 / 61 68.9% 68.8% 29 / 44 65.9% 68.8%
On the ground 113 / 161 70.2% 70.4% 19 / 22 too few to rate 70.4%
BY TARGET
To the head 226 / 514 44.0% 35.4% 102 / 280 36.4% 35.4%
To the body 87 / 127 68.5% 67.9% 67 / 104 64.4% 67.9%
To the legs 67 / 86 77.9% 79.7% 33 / 53 62.3% 79.7%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
626.1% acc · 0.74/15 · norm 1.30
Takedowns landed
3345.8% acc · 4.74/15 · norm 1.30
3159.6% def · norm 61.2%
Takedowns stopped
444.4% def · norm 61.2%
11:249.4% of cage time · norm 17.0%
Control time
51:0348.9% of cage time · norm 17.0%
44:065:26 per 15 · norm 2:46
Time under control lower is better
5:210:46 per 15 · norm 2:46
30.37/15 · norm 0.58
Submission attempts
101.44/15 · norm 0.58

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Osbourne has more cage time on record.