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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Nikita Krylov vs. Johnny Walker

UFC 12-11-0 vs. 9-7-0 (1 NC)

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
12-11-0
UFC record
9-7-0 (1 NC)
Light Heavyweight
Division (benchmark)
Light Heavyweight
34
AgeΔ 0 yrs
34
6'3"
HeightΔ 3"
6'6"
77"
ReachΔ 5"
82"
Orthodox9-9 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox7-5 vs orthodox fighters
0.4
Layoff (months)Δ 0.7 mo
1.1
LLWLL
Last 5 (newest first)
WLWLL

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Nikita Krylov is a submission threat — 1.13 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.28 Light Heavyweight norm.
Nikita Krylov hunts takedowns — 2.16 per 15 minutes, vs a 0.87 Light Heavyweight norm.
Johnny Walker carries real power — 0.80 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.40 Light Heavyweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Nikita Krylov

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 1210
Tier 3 — regional circuit 192

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.05 · 12 tier-1/2 wins · 29 finish wins over 43 documented bouts

In the UFC: 9-10 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.6 wins over .500

Johnny Walker

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 97
Tier 3 — regional circuit 133

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.9 · 9 tier-1/2 wins · 20 finish wins over 33 documented bouts

In the UFC: 8-7 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.4 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

6934.33/min · norm 3.48
Sig. strikes landed
4243.79/min · norm 3.48
4392.74/min · norm 3.35
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
3272.92/min · norm 3.35
54.3%norm 48.45%
Striking accuracy
53.7%norm 48.45%
48.0%norm 52.75%
Striking defense
48.4%norm 52.75%
60.56/15 · norm 0.40
Knockdowns
60.80/15 · norm 0.40

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Nikita Krylov

Distance 72.1% (norm 80.5%) · Clinch 15.7% (norm 8.8%) · Ground 12.2% (norm 10.6%)

Johnny Walker

Distance 80.6% (norm 80.5%) · Clinch 4.9% (norm 8.8%) · Ground 14.4% (norm 10.6%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Nikita Krylov

Head 69.3% (norm 78.5%) · Body 20.0% (norm 11.8%) · Legs 10.7% (norm 9.7%)

Johnny Walker

Head 59.0% (norm 78.5%) · Body 10.8% (norm 11.8%) · Legs 30.3% (norm 9.7%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Krylov L/AAccLight Heavyweight med Walker L/AAccLight Heavyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 411 / 921 44.6% 41.5% 299 / 637 46.9% 41.5%
In the clinch 157 / 200 78.5% 70.8% 32 / 39 82.1% 70.8%
On the ground 125 / 156 80.1% 72.9% 93 / 114 81.6% 72.9%
BY TARGET
To the head 408 / 885 46.1% 39.2% 193 / 466 41.4% 39.2%
To the body 171 / 255 67.1% 72.0% 44 / 85 51.8% 72.0%
To the legs 114 / 137 83.2% 82.1% 187 / 239 78.2% 82.1%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Light Heavyweight: 94 fighters · Light Heavyweight: 94 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Krylov L/AOpp accLight Heavyweight med vs Walker L/AOpp accLight Heavyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 274 / 610 44.9% 40.6% 248 / 527 47.1% 40.6%
In the clinch 72 / 102 70.6% 68.8% 24 / 36 66.7% 68.8%
On the ground 93 / 132 70.5% 70.4% 55 / 71 77.5% 70.4%
BY TARGET
To the head 377 / 767 49.2% 37.7% 161 / 400 40.2% 37.7%
To the body 40 / 53 75.5% 72.9% 66 / 102 64.7% 72.9%
To the legs 22 / 24 too few to rate 83.1% 100 / 132 75.8% 83.1%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
2337.7% acc · 2.16/15 · norm 0.87
Takedowns landed
240.0% acc · 0.27/15 · norm 0.87
2552.1% def · norm 66.7%
Takedowns stopped
950.0% def · norm 66.7%
57:0735.7% of cage time · norm 17.1%
Control time
8:427.8% of cage time · norm 17.1%
37:253:30 per 15 · norm 2:50
Time under control lower is better
20:082:41 per 15 · norm 2:50
121.13/15 · norm 0.28
Submission attempts
30.40/15 · norm 0.28

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Krylov has more cage time on record.