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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Nam Phan vs. Dennis Siver

UFC 2-6-0 vs. 12-8-0 (1 NC)

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
2-6-0
UFC record
12-8-0 (1 NC)
Featherweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
43
AgeΔ 4 yrs
47
5'6"
HeightΔ 0"
5'6"
70"
ReachΔ 0"
70"
Orthodox2-5 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox9-7 vs orthodox fighters
152.1
Layoff (months)Δ 39.8 mo
112.3
LLLWL
Last 5 (newest first)
WLLWNC

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Nam Phan absorbs 7.25 sig. strikes per minute, well above the 3.54 Featherweight norm — hittable.
Dennis Siver carries real power — 0.47 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.23 Lightweight norm.
Nam Phan rarely shoots — 0.13 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.17 Featherweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Nam Phan

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 27
Tier 3 — regional circuit 1910

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.14 · 2 tier-1/2 wins · 14 finish wins over 38 documented bouts

In the UFC: 1-3 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.6 wins over .500

Dennis Siver

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 128
Tier 3 — regional circuit 113

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.85 · 12 tier-1/2 wins · 14 finish wins over 35 documented bouts

In the UFC: 6-5 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.4 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

6075.06/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
8693.87/min · norm 3.43
8707.25/min · norm 3.54
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
5982.67/min · norm 3.37
35.9%norm 44.8%
Striking accuracy
32.4%norm 43.7%
62.2%norm 54.8%
Striking defense
65.0%norm 56.3%
00.00/15 · norm 0.28
Knockdowns
70.47/15 · norm 0.23

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Nam Phan

Distance 98.8% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 0.4% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 0.9% (norm 6.4%)

Dennis Siver

Distance 90.5% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 4.7% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 4.8% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Nam Phan

Head 85.8% (norm 77.5%) · Body 12.2% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 2.0% (norm 7.9%)

Dennis Siver

Head 78.1% (norm 78.1%) · Body 8.5% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 13.4% (norm 8.0%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Phan L/AAccFeatherweight med Siver L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 595 / 1669 35.7% 40.7% 737 / 2423 30.4% 38.4%
In the clinch 4 / 6 too few to rate 70.5% 46 / 126 36.5% 67.5%
On the ground 8 / 15 too few to rate 69.1% 86 / 129 66.7% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 449 / 1450 31.0% 37.2% 494 / 2091 23.6% 35.3%
To the body 134 / 206 65.0% 68.4% 118 / 228 51.8% 69.2%
To the legs 24 / 34 70.6% 80.7% 257 / 359 71.6% 81.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Featherweight: 129 fighters · Lightweight: 205 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Phan L/AOpp accFeatherweight med vs Siver L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 708 / 2094 33.8% 39.3% 472 / 1477 32.0% 38.9%
In the clinch 33 / 45 73.3% 70.3% 44 / 77 57.1% 68.6%
On the ground 129 / 163 79.1% 69.5% 82 / 157 52.2% 68.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 613 / 1919 31.9% 35.9% 372 / 1335 27.9% 35.2%
To the body 167 / 274 60.9% 68.1% 99 / 170 58.2% 68.2%
To the legs 90 / 109 82.6% 81.1% 127 / 206 61.7% 81.5%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
116.7% acc · 0.13/15 · norm 1.17
Takedowns landed
1332.5% acc · 0.87/15 · norm 1.34
3459.6% def · norm 61.5%
Takedowns stopped
3965.0% def · norm 63.2%
5:024.2% of cage time · norm 16.5%
Control time
38:0717.0% of cage time · norm 19.0%
30:583:52 per 15 · norm 3:11
Time under control lower is better
39:502:39 per 15 · norm 2:50
10.13/15 · norm 0.44
Submission attempts
50.33/15 · norm 0.48

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Siver has more cage time on record.