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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Muhammad Naimov vs. Jamie Mullarkey

UFC 5-3-0 vs. 6-7-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
5-3-0
UFC record
6-7-0
Featherweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
32
AgeΔ 0 yrs
32
5'9"
HeightΔ 3"
6'0"
70"
ReachΔ 4"
74"
Orthodox5-3 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox5-5 vs orthodox fighters
2
Layoff (months)Δ 7.1 mo
9.1
LLWWL
Last 5 (newest first)
LWLLW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Jamie Mullarkey hunts takedowns — 2.46 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.34 Lightweight norm.
Muhammad Naimov owns the mat — in control 26% of cage time, vs a 16% Featherweight norm.
Muhammad Naimov hunts takedowns — 1.73 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.17 Featherweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Muhammad Naimov

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 53
Tier 3 — regional circuit 81

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.1 · 5 tier-1/2 wins · 8 finish wins over 17 documented bouts

In the UFC: 3-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.9 wins over .500

Jamie Mullarkey

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 67
Tier 3 — regional circuit 122

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.71 · 6 tier-1/2 wins · 13 finish wins over 27 documented bouts

In the UFC: 3-3 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.7 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

1792.29/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
5004.10/min · norm 3.43
2332.98/min · norm 3.54
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
5214.28/min · norm 3.37
39.3%norm 44.8%
Striking accuracy
46.6%norm 43.7%
44.4%norm 54.8%
Striking defense
54.4%norm 56.3%
10.19/15 · norm 0.28
Knockdowns
20.25/15 · norm 0.23

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Muhammad Naimov

Distance 80.9% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 9.6% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 9.4% (norm 6.4%)

Jamie Mullarkey

Distance 89.8% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 6.5% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 3.6% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Muhammad Naimov

Head 77.2% (norm 77.5%) · Body 14.0% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 8.8% (norm 7.9%)

Jamie Mullarkey

Head 71.5% (norm 78.1%) · Body 15.1% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 13.4% (norm 8.0%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Naimov L/AAccFeatherweight med Mullarkey L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 126 / 369 34.1% 40.7% 429 / 963 44.5% 38.4%
In the clinch 29 / 44 65.9% 70.5% 46 / 70 65.7% 67.5%
On the ground 24 / 43 55.8% 69.1% 25 / 39 64.1% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 106 / 352 30.1% 37.2% 259 / 766 33.8% 35.3%
To the body 40 / 64 62.5% 68.4% 109 / 162 67.3% 69.2%
To the legs 33 / 40 82.5% 80.7% 132 / 144 91.7% 81.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Featherweight: 129 fighters · Lightweight: 205 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Naimov L/AOpp accFeatherweight med vs Mullarkey L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 155 / 318 48.7% 39.3% 428 / 1014 42.2% 38.9%
In the clinch 60 / 78 76.9% 70.3% 41 / 59 69.5% 68.6%
On the ground 18 / 23 too few to rate 69.5% 52 / 70 74.3% 68.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 101 / 251 40.2% 35.9% 347 / 893 38.9% 35.2%
To the body 74 / 97 76.3% 68.1% 101 / 169 59.8% 68.2%
To the legs 58 / 71 81.7% 81.1% 73 / 81 90.1% 81.5%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
934.6% acc · 1.73/15 · norm 1.17
Takedowns landed
2030.8% acc · 2.46/15 · norm 1.34
2573.5% def · norm 61.5%
Takedowns stopped
1270.6% def · norm 63.2%
20:0725.7% of cage time · norm 16.5%
Control time
27:0722.3% of cage time · norm 19.0%
16:223:08 per 15 · norm 3:11
Time under control lower is better
5:580:44 per 15 · norm 2:50
10.19/15 · norm 0.44
Submission attempts
10.12/15 · norm 0.48

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Mullarkey has more cage time on record.