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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy

UFC 10-1-0 vs. 9-1-1

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
10-1-0
UFC record
9-1-1
Featherweight
Division (benchmark)
Featherweight
32
AgeΔ 3 yrs
35
5'7"
HeightΔ 2"
5'9"
72"
ReachΔ 1"
73"
Orthodox9-1 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox8-1-1 vs orthodox fighters
0.4
Layoff (months)Δ 7.1 mo
7.5
LWWWW
Last 5 (newest first)
LWWWW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Movsar Evloev hunts takedowns — 4.77 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.17 Featherweight norm.
Movsar Evloev owns the mat — in control 34% of cage time, vs a 16% Featherweight norm.
Lerone Murphy's takedown defense leaks — 44% stopped, vs a 62% Featherweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Movsar Evloev

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 100
Tier 3 — regional circuit 100

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.78 · 10 tier-1/2 wins · 7 finish wins over 20 documented bouts

In the UFC: 8-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +5.5 wins over .500

Lerone Murphy

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 91
Tier 3 — regional circuit 80

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.69 · 9 tier-1/2 wins · 8 finish wins over 19 documented bouts

In the UFC: 7-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.3 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

6653.91/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
7074.34/min · norm 3.52
5042.97/min · norm 3.54
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
4322.65/min · norm 3.54
48.3%norm 44.8%
Striking accuracy
51.1%norm 44.8%
60.2%norm 54.8%
Striking defense
60.4%norm 54.8%
00.00/15 · norm 0.28
Knockdowns
30.28/15 · norm 0.28

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Movsar Evloev

Distance 85.4% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 5.4% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 9.2% (norm 6.4%)

Lerone Murphy

Distance 87.6% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 6.0% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 6.4% (norm 6.4%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Movsar Evloev

Head 85.5% (norm 77.5%) · Body 9.1% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 5.4% (norm 7.9%)

Lerone Murphy

Head 75.2% (norm 77.5%) · Body 15.6% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 9.2% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Evloev L/AAccFeatherweight med Murphy L/AAccFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 501 / 1176 42.6% 40.7% 577 / 1213 47.6% 40.7%
In the clinch 58 / 75 77.3% 70.5% 69 / 83 83.1% 70.5%
On the ground 106 / 126 84.1% 69.1% 61 / 88 69.3% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 507 / 1178 43.0% 37.2% 449 / 1041 43.1% 37.2%
To the body 102 / 125 81.6% 68.4% 152 / 216 70.4% 68.4%
To the legs 56 / 74 75.7% 80.7% 106 / 127 83.5% 80.7%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Featherweight: 129 fighters · Featherweight: 129 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Evloev L/AOpp accFeatherweight med vs Murphy L/AOpp accFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 421 / 1157 36.4% 39.3% 361 / 973 37.1% 39.3%
In the clinch 42 / 53 79.2% 70.3% 45 / 74 60.8% 70.3%
On the ground 41 / 57 71.9% 69.5% 26 / 44 59.1% 69.5%
BY TARGET
To the head 323 / 1010 32.0% 35.9% 246 / 832 29.6% 35.9%
To the body 124 / 182 68.1% 68.1% 108 / 152 71.1% 68.1%
To the legs 57 / 75 76.0% 81.1% 78 / 107 72.9% 81.1%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
5451.9% acc · 4.77/15 · norm 1.17
Takedowns landed
1354.2% acc · 1.20/15 · norm 1.17
2360.5% def · norm 61.5%
Takedowns stopped
2644.1% def · norm 61.5%
57:5234.1% of cage time · norm 16.5%
Control time
21:1313.0% of cage time · norm 16.5%
13:511:13 per 15 · norm 3:11
Time under control lower is better
36:013:19 per 15 · norm 3:11
20.18/15 · norm 0.44
Submission attempts
50.46/15 · norm 0.44

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Evloev has more cage time on record.