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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Marlon Moraes

UFC 14-4-0 vs. 5-6-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
14-4-0
UFC record
5-6-0
Bantamweight
Division (benchmark)
Bantamweight
35
AgeΔ 3 yrs
38
5'6"
HeightΔ 0"
5'6"
68"
ReachΔ 1"
67"
Orthodox9-2 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox5-5 vs orthodox fighters
0.4
Layoff (months)Δ 55.4 mo
55.8
LLWWW
Last 5 (newest first)
LLLLW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Merab Dvalishvili hunts takedowns — 5.74 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.12 Bantamweight norm.
Marlon Moraes carries real power — 0.87 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.29 Bantamweight norm.
Merab Dvalishvili owns the mat — in control 34% of cage time, vs a 18% Bantamweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Merab Dvalishvili

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 143
Tier 3 — regional circuit 72

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.37 · 14 tier-1/2 wins · 5 finish wins over 26 documented bouts

In the UFC: 12-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +4.1 wins over .500

Marlon Moraes

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 59
Tier 3 — regional circuit 184

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.46 · 5 tier-1/2 wins · 16 finish wins over 37 documented bouts

In the UFC: 5-6 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +5.4 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

14534.48/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
2903.37/min · norm 3.52
9662.98/min · norm 3.58
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
3904.53/min · norm 3.58
41.0%norm 43.5%
Striking accuracy
40.6%norm 43.5%
52.9%norm 56.6%
Striking defense
54.2%norm 56.6%
10.05/15 · norm 0.29
Knockdowns
50.87/15 · norm 0.29

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Merab Dvalishvili

Distance 79.4% (norm 87.4%) · Clinch 8.5% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 12.2% (norm 6.4%)

Marlon Moraes

Distance 95.8% (norm 87.4%) · Clinch 0.8% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 3.4% (norm 6.4%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Merab Dvalishvili

Head 81.7% (norm 77.5%) · Body 9.9% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 8.4% (norm 8.4%)

Marlon Moraes

Head 79.3% (norm 77.5%) · Body 9.8% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 10.9% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Dvalishvili L/AAccBantamweight med Moraes L/AAccBantamweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 963 / 2813 34.2% 39.2% 267 / 684 39.0% 39.2%
In the clinch 206 / 300 68.7% 69.0% 4 / 6 too few to rate 69.0%
On the ground 284 / 431 65.9% 70.2% 19 / 24 too few to rate 70.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 980 / 2895 33.9% 35.3% 189 / 566 33.4% 35.3%
To the body 237 / 352 67.3% 66.9% 46 / 70 65.7% 66.9%
To the legs 236 / 297 79.5% 79.2% 55 / 78 70.5% 79.2%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Bantamweight: 121 fighters · Bantamweight: 121 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Dvalishvili L/AOpp accBantamweight med vs Moraes L/AOpp accBantamweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 816 / 1837 44.4% 39.4% 264 / 692 38.2% 39.4%
In the clinch 125 / 185 67.6% 70.6% 24 / 30 80.0% 70.6%
On the ground 25 / 29 86.2% 72.1% 102 / 129 79.1% 72.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 588 / 1565 37.6% 34.9% 275 / 684 40.2% 34.9%
To the body 243 / 328 74.1% 66.1% 70 / 107 65.4% 66.1%
To the legs 135 / 158 85.4% 78.8% 45 / 60 75.0% 78.8%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
12431.3% acc · 5.74/15 · norm 1.12
Takedowns landed
541.7% acc · 0.87/15 · norm 1.12
3976.5% def · norm 65.7%
Takedowns stopped
646.2% def · norm 65.7%
109:1933.7% of cage time · norm 17.8%
Control time
6:037.0% of cage time · norm 17.8%
16:080:44 per 15 · norm 2:24
Time under control lower is better
9:511:42 per 15 · norm 2:24
70.32/15 · norm 0.28
Submission attempts
20.35/15 · norm 0.28

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Dvalishvili has more cage time on record.