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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Jose Aldo

UFC 14-4-0 vs. 14-9-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
14-4-0
UFC record
14-9-0
Bantamweight
Division (benchmark)
Featherweight
35
AgeΔ 5 yrs
40
5'6"
HeightΔ 1"
5'7"
68"
ReachΔ 2"
70"
Orthodox9-2 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox11-6 vs orthodox fighters
0.4
Layoff (months)Δ 17.5 mo
17.9
LLWWW
Last 5 (newest first)
LLWLW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Merab Dvalishvili hunts takedowns — 5.74 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.12 Bantamweight norm.
Merab Dvalishvili owns the mat — in control 34% of cage time, vs a 18% Bantamweight norm.
Jose Aldo rarely shoots — 0.51 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.17 Featherweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Merab Dvalishvili

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 143
Tier 3 — regional circuit 72

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.37 · 14 tier-1/2 wins · 5 finish wins over 26 documented bouts

In the UFC: 12-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +4.1 wins over .500

Jose Aldo

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 149
Tier 3 — regional circuit 181

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.13 · 14 tier-1/2 wins · 18 finish wins over 42 documented bouts

In the UFC: 14-9 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +5.5 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

14534.48/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
13543.57/min · norm 3.52
9662.98/min · norm 3.58
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
16004.21/min · norm 3.54
41.0%norm 43.5%
Striking accuracy
45.3%norm 44.8%
52.9%norm 56.6%
Striking defense
58.4%norm 54.8%
10.05/15 · norm 0.29
Knockdowns
70.28/15 · norm 0.28

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Merab Dvalishvili

Distance 79.4% (norm 87.4%) · Clinch 8.5% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 12.2% (norm 6.4%)

Jose Aldo

Distance 93.6% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 2.3% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 4.0% (norm 6.4%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Merab Dvalishvili

Head 81.7% (norm 77.5%) · Body 9.9% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 8.4% (norm 8.4%)

Jose Aldo

Head 79.8% (norm 77.5%) · Body 13.9% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 6.2% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Dvalishvili L/AAccBantamweight med Aldo L/AAccFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 963 / 2813 34.2% 39.2% 1220 / 2802 43.5% 40.7%
In the clinch 206 / 300 68.7% 69.0% 56 / 69 81.2% 70.5%
On the ground 284 / 431 65.9% 70.2% 78 / 121 64.5% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 980 / 2895 33.9% 35.3% 913 / 2389 38.2% 37.2%
To the body 237 / 352 67.3% 66.9% 280 / 416 67.3% 68.4%
To the legs 236 / 297 79.5% 79.2% 161 / 187 86.1% 80.7%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Bantamweight: 121 fighters · Featherweight: 129 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Dvalishvili L/AOpp accBantamweight med vs Aldo L/AOpp accFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 816 / 1837 44.4% 39.4% 1242 / 3376 36.8% 39.3%
In the clinch 125 / 185 67.6% 70.6% 153 / 189 81.0% 70.3%
On the ground 25 / 29 86.2% 72.1% 205 / 277 74.0% 69.5%
BY TARGET
To the head 588 / 1565 37.6% 34.9% 991 / 2993 33.1% 35.9%
To the body 243 / 328 74.1% 66.1% 289 / 433 66.7% 68.1%
To the legs 135 / 158 85.4% 78.8% 320 / 416 76.9% 81.1%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
12431.3% acc · 5.74/15 · norm 1.12
Takedowns landed
1350.0% acc · 0.51/15 · norm 1.17
3976.5% def · norm 65.7%
Takedowns stopped
9891.6% def · norm 61.5%
109:1933.7% of cage time · norm 17.8%
Control time
44:0611.6% of cage time · norm 16.5%
16:080:44 per 15 · norm 2:24
Time under control lower is better
52:302:04 per 15 · norm 3:11
70.32/15 · norm 0.28
Submission attempts
40.16/15 · norm 0.44

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Aldo has more cage time on record.