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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Merab Dvalishvili vs. John Dodson

UFC 14-4-0 vs. 10-7-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
14-4-0
UFC record
10-7-0
Bantamweight
Division (benchmark)
Bantamweight
35
AgeΔ 7 yrs
42
5'6"
HeightΔ 3"
5'3"
68"
ReachΔ 2"
66"
Orthodox9-2 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox7-6 vs orthodox fighters
0.4
Layoff (months)Δ 74.2 mo
74.6
LLWWW
Last 5 (newest first)
LWLLW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Merab Dvalishvili hunts takedowns — 5.74 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.12 Bantamweight norm.
John Dodson carries real power — 0.71 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.29 Bantamweight norm.
Merab Dvalishvili owns the mat — in control 34% of cage time, vs a 18% Bantamweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Merab Dvalishvili

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 143
Tier 3 — regional circuit 72

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.37 · 14 tier-1/2 wins · 5 finish wins over 26 documented bouts

In the UFC: 12-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +4.1 wins over .500

John Dodson

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 129
Tier 3 — regional circuit 126

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.83 · 12 tier-1/2 wins · 13 finish wins over 39 documented bouts

In the UFC: 4-6 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.2 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

14534.48/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
7423.20/min · norm 3.52
9662.98/min · norm 3.58
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
8283.58/min · norm 3.58
41.0%norm 43.5%
Striking accuracy
40.7%norm 43.5%
52.9%norm 56.6%
Striking defense
61.6%norm 56.6%
10.05/15 · norm 0.29
Knockdowns
110.71/15 · norm 0.29

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Merab Dvalishvili

Distance 79.4% (norm 87.4%) · Clinch 8.5% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 12.2% (norm 6.4%)

John Dodson

Distance 91.3% (norm 87.4%) · Clinch 6.8% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 1.9% (norm 6.4%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Merab Dvalishvili

Head 81.7% (norm 77.5%) · Body 9.9% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 8.4% (norm 8.4%)

John Dodson

Head 77.5% (norm 77.5%) · Body 16.1% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 6.4% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Dvalishvili L/AAccBantamweight med Dodson L/AAccBantamweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 963 / 2813 34.2% 39.2% 631 / 1664 37.9% 39.2%
In the clinch 206 / 300 68.7% 69.0% 84 / 123 68.3% 69.0%
On the ground 284 / 431 65.9% 70.2% 27 / 35 77.1% 70.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 980 / 2895 33.9% 35.3% 414 / 1412 29.3% 35.3%
To the body 237 / 352 67.3% 66.9% 223 / 293 76.1% 66.9%
To the legs 236 / 297 79.5% 79.2% 105 / 117 89.7% 79.2%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Bantamweight: 121 fighters · Bantamweight: 121 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Dvalishvili L/AOpp accBantamweight med vs Dodson L/AOpp accBantamweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 816 / 1837 44.4% 39.4% 640 / 1907 33.6% 39.4%
In the clinch 125 / 185 67.6% 70.6% 178 / 235 75.7% 70.6%
On the ground 25 / 29 86.2% 72.1% 10 / 12 too few to rate 72.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 588 / 1565 37.6% 34.9% 471 / 1568 30.0% 34.9%
To the body 243 / 328 74.1% 66.1% 197 / 361 54.6% 66.1%
To the legs 135 / 158 85.4% 78.8% 160 / 225 71.1% 78.8%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
12431.3% acc · 5.74/15 · norm 1.12
Takedowns landed
1128.9% acc · 0.71/15 · norm 1.12
3976.5% def · norm 65.7%
Takedowns stopped
7482.2% def · norm 65.7%
109:1933.7% of cage time · norm 17.8%
Control time
11:285.0% of cage time · norm 17.8%
16:080:44 per 15 · norm 2:24
Time under control lower is better
19:091:14 per 15 · norm 2:24
70.32/15 · norm 0.28
Submission attempts
00.00/15 · norm 0.28

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Dvalishvili has more cage time on record.