Skip to content
UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Melvin Guillard vs. Evan Dunham

UFC 12-9-0 (1 NC) vs. 11-9-1

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
12-9-0 (1 NC)
UFC record
11-9-1
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
43
AgeΔ 1 yrs
44
5'9"
HeightΔ 1"
5'10"
71"
ReachΔ 1"
70"
Orthodox4-4 vs southpaws
Stance
Southpaw8-6 vs orthodox fighters
151.9
Layoff (months)Δ 75 mo
76.9
LNCWLL
Last 5 (newest first)
LLLDW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Melvin Guillard carries real power — 1.33 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.23 Lightweight norm.
Evan Dunham is a submission threat — 0.98 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.48 Lightweight norm.
Evan Dunham outworks the Lightweight division — 5.33 sig. strikes landed per minute, vs a 3.43 norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Melvin Guillard

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 1213
Tier 3 — regional circuit 2111

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.38 · 12 tier-1/2 wins · 24 finish wins over 62 documented bouts

In the UFC: 4-6 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.3 wins over .500

Evan Dunham

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 119
Tier 3 — regional circuit 70

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.92 · 11 tier-1/2 wins · 9 finish wins over 28 documented bouts

In the UFC: 7-9 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.0 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

4483.06/min · norm 3.43
Sig. strikes landed
12285.33/min · norm 3.43
2671.83/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
8163.54/min · norm 3.37
39.7%norm 43.7%
Striking accuracy
39.3%norm 43.7%
68.1%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
61.7%norm 56.3%
131.33/15 · norm 0.23
Knockdowns
20.13/15 · norm 0.23

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Melvin Guillard

Distance 79.4% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 8.5% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 12.1% (norm 8.0%)

Evan Dunham

Distance 89.9% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 7.0% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 3.2% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Melvin Guillard

Head 82.3% (norm 78.1%) · Body 11.9% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 5.9% (norm 8.0%)

Evan Dunham

Head 91.1% (norm 78.1%) · Body 7.1% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 1.9% (norm 8.0%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Guillard L/AAccLightweight med Dunham L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 312 / 896 34.8% 38.4% 1024 / 2811 36.4% 38.4%
In the clinch 58 / 96 60.4% 67.5% 142 / 218 65.1% 67.5%
On the ground 78 / 136 57.4% 69.1% 62 / 99 62.6% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 300 / 928 32.3% 35.3% 1039 / 2849 36.5% 35.3%
To the body 90 / 134 67.2% 69.2% 137 / 221 62.0% 69.2%
To the legs 58 / 66 87.9% 81.8% 52 / 58 89.7% 81.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 205 fighters · Lightweight: 205 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Guillard L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Dunham L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 219 / 732 29.9% 38.9% 639 / 1840 34.7% 38.9%
In the clinch 36 / 75 48.0% 68.6% 122 / 202 60.4% 68.6%
On the ground 12 / 31 38.7% 68.2% 55 / 87 63.2% 68.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 123 / 604 20.4% 35.2% 557 / 1767 31.5% 35.2%
To the body 59 / 111 53.2% 68.2% 160 / 232 69.0% 68.2%
To the legs 85 / 123 69.1% 81.5% 99 / 130 76.2% 81.5%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
1466.7% acc · 1.44/15 · norm 1.34
Takedowns landed
2833.3% acc · 1.82/15 · norm 1.34
5865.2% def · norm 63.2%
Takedowns stopped
5979.7% def · norm 63.2%
12:558.8% of cage time · norm 19.0%
Control time
52:2122.7% of cage time · norm 19.0%
34:063:29 per 15 · norm 2:50
Time under control lower is better
27:521:48 per 15 · norm 2:50
20.21/15 · norm 0.48
Submission attempts
150.98/15 · norm 0.48

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Guillard has more cage time on record.