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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Mauricio Ruffy vs. King Green

UFC 5-2-0 vs. 17-13-1 (1 NC)

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
5-2-0
UFC record
17-13-1 (1 NC)
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
30
AgeΔ 10 yrs
40
5'11"
HeightΔ 1"
5'10"
75"
ReachΔ 4"
71"
Orthodox4-1 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox8-7-1 vs orthodox fighters
1.5
Layoff (months)Δ 0.4 mo
1.1
LWWLW
Last 5 (newest first)
LWWWW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Mauricio Ruffy has owned orthodox fighters — 4-1 in the UFC (1-1 vs everyone else), and King Green is orthodox.
Mauricio Ruffy carries real power — 1.85 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.23 Lightweight norm.
Mauricio Ruffy rarely shoots — 0.00 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.34 Lightweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Mauricio Ruffy

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 51
Tier 3 — regional circuit 71

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.48 · 5 tier-1/2 wins · 11 finish wins over 14 documented bouts

In the UFC: 2-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.6 wins over .500

King Green

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 1712
Tier 3 — regional circuit 175

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.85 · 17 tier-1/2 wins · 22 finish wins over 53 documented bouts

In the UFC: 11-12 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.9 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

1793.68/min · norm 3.43
Sig. strikes landed
21516.59/min · norm 3.43
1723.53/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
12273.76/min · norm 3.37
56.5%norm 43.7%
Striking accuracy
53.6%norm 43.7%
59.4%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
61.4%norm 56.3%
61.85/15 · norm 0.23
Knockdowns
70.32/15 · norm 0.23

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Mauricio Ruffy

Distance 86.8% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 2.5% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 10.7% (norm 8.0%)

King Green

Distance 87.4% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 5.3% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 7.3% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Mauricio Ruffy

Head 86.1% (norm 78.1%) · Body 6.3% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 7.6% (norm 8.0%)

King Green

Head 70.2% (norm 78.1%) · Body 18.6% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 11.2% (norm 8.0%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Ruffy L/AAccLightweight med Green L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 149 / 275 54.2% 38.4% 1747 / 3505 49.8% 38.4%
In the clinch 7 / 8 too few to rate 67.5% 182 / 212 85.8% 67.5%
On the ground 23 / 34 67.6% 69.1% 222 / 293 75.8% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 146 / 273 53.5% 35.3% 1252 / 2815 44.5% 35.3%
To the body 13 / 20 too few to rate 69.2% 541 / 747 72.4% 69.2%
To the legs 20 / 24 too few to rate 81.8% 358 / 448 79.9% 81.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 205 fighters · Lightweight: 205 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Ruffy L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Green L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 142 / 383 37.1% 38.9% 1057 / 2910 36.3% 38.9%
In the clinch 25 / 32 78.1% 68.6% 73 / 127 57.5% 68.6%
On the ground 5 / 9 too few to rate 68.2% 97 / 145 66.9% 68.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 64 / 256 25.0% 35.2% 741 / 2402 30.8% 35.2%
To the body 67 / 106 63.2% 68.2% 242 / 432 56.0% 68.2%
To the legs 41 / 62 66.1% 81.5% 244 / 348 70.1% 81.5%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
00.0% acc · 0.00/15 · norm 1.34
Takedowns landed
2745.0% acc · 1.24/15 · norm 1.34
2686.7% def · norm 63.2%
Takedowns stopped
5269.3% def · norm 63.2%
2:014.1% of cage time · norm 19.0%
Control time
46:1514.2% of cage time · norm 19.0%
8:582:45 per 15 · norm 2:50
Time under control lower is better
29:381:21 per 15 · norm 2:50
00.00/15 · norm 0.48
Submission attempts
60.28/15 · norm 0.48

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Green has more cage time on record.