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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Mason Jones vs. Mike Davis

UFC 4-3-0 (1 NC) vs. 5-3-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
4-3-0 (1 NC)
UFC record
5-3-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
31
AgeΔ 3 yrs
34
5'10"
HeightΔ 2"
6'0"
74"
ReachΔ 2"
72"
Orthodox3-2 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox4-3 vs orthodox fighters
2.5
Layoff (months)Δ 0.9 mo
3.4
LWWWL
Last 5 (newest first)
LWLWW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Mike Davis carries real power — 0.60 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.23 Lightweight norm.
Mason Jones hunts takedowns — 3.38 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.34 Lightweight norm.
Mike Davis is a submission threat — 1.05 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.48 Lightweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Mason Jones

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 42
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 130
Tier 3 — regional circuit 10

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.72 · 17 tier-1/2 wins · 11 finish wins over 21 documented bouts

In the UFC: 2-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.5 wins over .500

Mike Davis

Full career not yet synced for Mike Davis — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 1-3 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.2 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

6186.33/min · norm 3.43
Sig. strikes landed
4174.18/min · norm 3.43
4764.87/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
4244.25/min · norm 3.37
43.7%norm 43.7%
Striking accuracy
54.7%norm 43.7%
48.7%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
56.3%norm 56.3%
10.15/15 · norm 0.23
Knockdowns
40.60/15 · norm 0.23

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Mason Jones

Distance 81.5% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 10.5% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 8.0% (norm 8.0%)

Mike Davis

Distance 79.0% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 5.2% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 15.7% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Mason Jones

Head 82.5% (norm 78.1%) · Body 13.6% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 3.9% (norm 8.0%)

Mike Davis

Head 72.4% (norm 78.1%) · Body 21.0% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 6.6% (norm 8.0%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Jones L/AAccLightweight med Davis L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 443 / 1153 38.4% 38.4% 300 / 602 49.8% 38.4%
In the clinch 99 / 148 66.9% 67.5% 32 / 40 80.0% 67.5%
On the ground 76 / 113 67.3% 69.1% 85 / 120 70.8% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 427 / 1167 36.6% 35.3% 262 / 552 47.5% 35.3%
To the body 143 / 192 74.5% 69.2% 116 / 160 72.5% 69.2%
To the legs 48 / 55 87.3% 81.8% 39 / 50 78.0% 81.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 205 fighters · Lightweight: 205 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Jones L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Davis L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 406 / 816 49.8% 38.9% 349 / 852 41.0% 38.9%
In the clinch 50 / 74 67.6% 68.6% 34 / 53 64.2% 68.6%
On the ground 20 / 37 54.1% 68.2% 41 / 65 63.1% 68.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 322 / 720 44.7% 35.2% 263 / 774 34.0% 35.2%
To the body 101 / 148 68.2% 68.2% 69 / 97 71.1% 68.2%
To the legs 53 / 59 89.8% 81.5% 92 / 99 92.9% 81.5%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
2256.4% acc · 3.38/15 · norm 1.34
Takedowns landed
1650.0% acc · 2.40/15 · norm 1.34
2177.8% def · norm 63.2%
Takedowns stopped
1851.4% def · norm 63.2%
26:0926.8% of cage time · norm 19.0%
Control time
24:5625.0% of cage time · norm 19.0%
11:291:45 per 15 · norm 2:50
Time under control lower is better
26:464:01 per 15 · norm 2:50
10.15/15 · norm 0.48
Submission attempts
71.05/15 · norm 0.48

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Jones has more cage time on record.