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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Mason Jones vs. David Onama

UFC 4-3-0 (1 NC) vs. 6-3-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
4-3-0 (1 NC)
UFC record
6-3-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Featherweight
31
AgeΔ 1 yrs
32
5'10"
HeightΔ 1"
5'11"
74"
ReachΔ 0"
74"
Orthodox3-2 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox4-2 vs orthodox fighters
2.4
Layoff (months)Δ 9.7 mo
12.1
LWWWL
Last 5 (newest first)
LWWWW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Mason Jones hunts takedowns — 3.38 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.34 Lightweight norm.
David Onama carries real power — 0.60 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.28 Featherweight norm.
Mason Jones outworks the Lightweight division — 6.33 sig. strikes landed per minute, vs a 3.43 norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Mason Jones

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 42
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 130
Tier 3 — regional circuit 10

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.72 · 17 tier-1/2 wins · 11 finish wins over 21 documented bouts

In the UFC: 2-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.5 wins over .500

David Onama

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 63
Tier 3 — regional circuit 80

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.44 · 6 tier-1/2 wins · 11 finish wins over 17 documented bouts

In the UFC: 3-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.4 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

6186.33/min · norm 3.43
Sig. strikes landed
5095.07/min · norm 3.52
4764.87/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
4914.89/min · norm 3.54
43.7%norm 43.7%
Striking accuracy
50.0%norm 44.8%
48.7%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
51.9%norm 54.8%
10.15/15 · norm 0.23
Knockdowns
40.60/15 · norm 0.28

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Mason Jones

Distance 81.5% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 10.5% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 8.0% (norm 8.0%)

David Onama

Distance 84.0% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 5.2% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 10.8% (norm 6.4%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Mason Jones

Head 82.5% (norm 78.1%) · Body 13.6% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 3.9% (norm 8.0%)

David Onama

Head 85.5% (norm 77.5%) · Body 9.2% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 5.2% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Jones L/AAccLightweight med Onama L/AAccFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 443 / 1153 38.4% 38.4% 403 / 854 47.2% 40.7%
In the clinch 99 / 148 66.9% 67.5% 38 / 53 71.7% 70.5%
On the ground 76 / 113 67.3% 69.1% 68 / 110 61.8% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 427 / 1167 36.6% 35.3% 406 / 870 46.7% 37.2%
To the body 143 / 192 74.5% 69.2% 59 / 94 62.8% 68.4%
To the legs 48 / 55 87.3% 81.8% 44 / 53 83.0% 80.7%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 205 fighters · Featherweight: 129 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Jones L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Onama L/AOpp accFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 406 / 816 49.8% 38.9% 400 / 881 45.4% 39.3%
In the clinch 50 / 74 67.6% 68.6% 48 / 77 62.3% 70.3%
On the ground 20 / 37 54.1% 68.2% 43 / 62 69.4% 69.5%
BY TARGET
To the head 322 / 720 44.7% 35.2% 312 / 783 39.8% 35.9%
To the body 101 / 148 68.2% 68.2% 100 / 138 72.5% 68.1%
To the legs 53 / 59 89.8% 81.5% 79 / 99 79.8% 81.1%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
2256.4% acc · 3.38/15 · norm 1.34
Takedowns landed
730.4% acc · 1.05/15 · norm 1.17
2177.8% def · norm 63.2%
Takedowns stopped
2052.6% def · norm 61.5%
26:0926.8% of cage time · norm 19.0%
Control time
19:5519.8% of cage time · norm 16.5%
11:291:45 per 15 · norm 2:50
Time under control lower is better
23:363:31 per 15 · norm 3:11
10.15/15 · norm 0.48
Submission attempts
30.45/15 · norm 0.44

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Onama has more cage time on record.