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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Marcus McGhee vs. Petr Yan

UFC 6-1-0 vs. 13-4-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
6-1-0
UFC record
13-4-0
Bantamweight
Division (benchmark)
Bantamweight
36
AgeΔ 3 yrs
33
5'8"
HeightΔ 1"
5'7"
69"
ReachΔ 2"
67"
Orthodox0-1 vs switch-stance fighters
Stance
Switch11-3 vs orthodox fighters
1.1
Layoff (months)Δ 0.7 mo
0.4
WWLWW
Last 5 (newest first)
WWWWW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Marcus McGhee carries real power — 1.11 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.29 Bantamweight norm.
Marcus McGhee rarely shoots — 0.22 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.12 Bantamweight norm.
Petr Yan carries real power — 0.49 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.29 Bantamweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Marcus McGhee

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 51
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 11
Tier 3 — regional circuit 50

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.56 · 6 tier-1/2 wins · 9 finish wins over 13 documented bouts

In the UFC: 2-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.1 wins over .500

Petr Yan

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 124
Tier 3 — regional circuit 81

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.41 · 12 tier-1/2 wins · 8 finish wins over 25 documented bouts

In the UFC: 11-4 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +5.8 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

3765.54/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
15845.16/min · norm 3.52
2423.57/min · norm 3.58
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
13284.32/min · norm 3.58
43.8%norm 43.5%
Striking accuracy
55.0%norm 43.5%
57.0%norm 56.6%
Striking defense
60.1%norm 56.6%
51.11/15 · norm 0.29
Knockdowns
100.49/15 · norm 0.29

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Marcus McGhee

Distance 92.9% (norm 87.4%) · Clinch 1.9% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 5.2% (norm 6.4%)

Petr Yan

Distance 83.3% (norm 87.4%) · Clinch 8.4% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 8.3% (norm 6.4%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Marcus McGhee

Head 80.7% (norm 77.5%) · Body 10.9% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 8.4% (norm 8.4%)

Petr Yan

Head 80.5% (norm 77.5%) · Body 12.3% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 7.2% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone McGhee L/AAccBantamweight med Yan L/AAccBantamweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 335 / 798 42.0% 39.2% 1201 / 2400 50.0% 39.2%
In the clinch 10 / 16 too few to rate 69.0% 187 / 241 77.6% 69.0%
On the ground 31 / 45 68.9% 70.2% 196 / 239 82.0% 70.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 265 / 693 38.2% 35.3% 1103 / 2318 47.6% 35.3%
To the body 61 / 94 64.9% 66.9% 294 / 355 82.8% 66.9%
To the legs 50 / 72 69.4% 79.2% 187 / 207 90.3% 79.2%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Bantamweight: 121 fighters · Bantamweight: 121 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs McGhee L/AOpp accBantamweight med vs Yan L/AOpp accBantamweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 215 / 523 41.1% 39.4% 1189 / 3123 38.1% 39.4%
In the clinch 27 / 38 71.1% 70.6% 108 / 161 67.1% 70.6%
On the ground 0 / 2 too few to rate 72.1% 31 / 42 73.8% 72.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 144 / 419 34.4% 34.9% 864 / 2626 32.9% 34.9%
To the body 48 / 77 62.3% 66.1% 278 / 435 63.9% 66.1%
To the legs 50 / 67 74.6% 78.8% 186 / 265 70.2% 78.8%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
111.1% acc · 0.22/15 · norm 1.12
Takedowns landed
3248.5% acc · 1.56/15 · norm 1.12
981.8% def · norm 65.7%
Takedowns stopped
19987.7% def · norm 65.7%
3:545.8% of cage time · norm 17.8%
Control time
42:4213.9% of cage time · norm 17.8%
5:191:10 per 15 · norm 2:24
Time under control lower is better
35:501:45 per 15 · norm 2:24
10.22/15 · norm 0.28
Submission attempts
20.10/15 · norm 0.28

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Yan has more cage time on record.