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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Leslie Smith vs. Jessica Eye

UFC 4-3-0 vs. 5-10-0 (1 NC)

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
4-3-0
UFC record
5-10-0 (1 NC)
Women's Bantamweight
Division (benchmark)
Women's Flyweight
44
AgeΔ 4 yrs
40
5'9"
HeightΔ 3"
5'6"
66"
ReachΔ 0"
66"
Orthodox3-3 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox4-8 vs orthodox fighters
111.7
Layoff (months)Δ 59.6 mo
52.1
WWLWL
Last 5 (newest first)
LLLLW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Leslie Smith carries real power — 0.48 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.06 Women's Bantamweight norm.
Leslie Smith absorbs 8.41 sig. strikes per minute, well above the 3.47 Women's Bantamweight norm — hittable.
Jessica Eye is a submission threat — 0.45 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.32 Women's Flyweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Leslie Smith

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 66
Tier 3 — regional circuit 63

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.55 · 6 tier-1/2 wins · 5 finish wins over 22 documented bouts

In the UFC: 0-0 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record -0.3 wins over .500

Jessica Eye

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 810
Tier 3 — regional circuit 71

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.62 · 8 tier-1/2 wins · 4 finish wins over 27 documented bouts

In the UFC: 3-8 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.4 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

4777.56/min · norm 3.56
Sig. strikes landed
8953.86/min · norm 3.93
5318.41/min · norm 3.47
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
9714.19/min · norm 3.84
40.3%norm 46.3%
Striking accuracy
37.5%norm 45.5%
51.1%norm 52.5%
Striking defense
55.8%norm 56.1%
20.48/15 · norm 0.06
Knockdowns
00.00/15 · norm 0.10

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Leslie Smith

Distance 84.1% (norm 80.3%) · Clinch 14.5% (norm 9.8%) · Ground 1.4% (norm 6.2%)

Jessica Eye

Distance 90.8% (norm 87.5%) · Clinch 8.0% (norm 7.3%) · Ground 1.2% (norm 4.5%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Leslie Smith

Head 84.9% (norm 75.7%) · Body 9.5% (norm 15.5%) · Legs 5.7% (norm 8.4%)

Jessica Eye

Head 79.9% (norm 78.1%) · Body 11.9% (norm 14.5%) · Legs 8.2% (norm 7.6%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Smith L/AAccWomen's Bantamweight med Eye L/AAccWomen's Flyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 354 / 995 35.6% 38.3% 742 / 2169 34.2% 40.3%
In the clinch 116 / 171 67.8% 75.2% 129 / 190 67.9% 73.9%
On the ground 7 / 17 too few to rate 70.8% 24 / 29 82.8% 74.4%
BY TARGET
To the head 345 / 1004 34.4% 37.0% 537 / 1908 28.1% 36.0%
To the body 73 / 112 65.2% 71.2% 198 / 285 69.5% 69.5%
To the legs 59 / 67 88.1% 80.8% 160 / 195 82.1% 82.3%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Women's Bantamweight: 42 fighters · Women's Flyweight: 47 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Smith L/AOpp accWomen's Bantamweight med vs Eye L/AOpp accWomen's Flyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 391 / 905 43.2% 41.3% 705 / 1863 37.8% 39.0%
In the clinch 125 / 160 78.1% 74.7% 181 / 233 77.7% 73.8%
On the ground 15 / 20 too few to rate 74.2% 85 / 102 83.3% 73.4%
BY TARGET
To the head 341 / 857 39.8% 38.1% 596 / 1702 35.0% 35.0%
To the body 91 / 119 76.5% 73.2% 221 / 290 76.2% 69.0%
To the legs 99 / 109 90.8% 80.7% 154 / 206 74.8% 78.7%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
00.0% acc · 0.00/15 · norm 0.93
Takedowns landed
940.9% acc · 0.58/15 · norm 0.94
1062.5% def · norm 62.5%
Takedowns stopped
2457.1% def · norm 61.1%
3:566.2% of cage time · norm 25.2%
Control time
31:3913.6% of cage time · norm 18.7%
9:022:08 per 15 · norm 3:20
Time under control lower is better
46:303:00 per 15 · norm 3:00
00.00/15 · norm 0.38
Submission attempts
70.45/15 · norm 0.32

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Eye has more cage time on record.