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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Kyle Bochniak vs. Charles Rosa

UFC 2-5-0 vs. 5-8-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
2-5-0
UFC record
5-8-0
Featherweight
Division (benchmark)
Featherweight
39
AgeΔ 1 yrs
40
5'7"
HeightΔ 2"
5'9"
70"
ReachΔ 1"
69"
Orthodox0-1 vs switch-stance fighters
Stance
Switch5-5 vs orthodox fighters
84.6
Layoff (months)Δ 33.2 mo
51.4
LLLWL
Last 5 (newest first)
LLLWL

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Charles Rosa is a submission threat — 1.00 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.44 Featherweight norm.
Kyle Bochniak absorbs 5.11 sig. strikes per minute, well above the 3.54 Featherweight norm — hittable.
Charles Rosa hunts takedowns — 1.67 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.17 Featherweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Kyle Bochniak

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 27
Tier 3 — regional circuit 90

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.54 · 2 tier-1/2 wins · 4 finish wins over 18 documented bouts

In the UFC: 1-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.6 wins over .500

Charles Rosa

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 58
Tier 3 — regional circuit 141

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.9 · 5 tier-1/2 wins · 16 finish wins over 28 documented bouts

In the UFC: 1-5 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.5 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

2762.63/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
5533.08/min · norm 3.52
5375.11/min · norm 3.54
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
6923.86/min · norm 3.54
31.4%norm 44.8%
Striking accuracy
36.3%norm 44.8%
58.1%norm 54.8%
Striking defense
47.2%norm 54.8%
10.14/15 · norm 0.28
Knockdowns
00.00/15 · norm 0.28

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Kyle Bochniak

Distance 92.9% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 6.0% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 1.0% (norm 6.4%)

Charles Rosa

Distance 93.1% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 2.8% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 4.1% (norm 6.4%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Kyle Bochniak

Head 81.6% (norm 77.5%) · Body 9.7% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 8.8% (norm 7.9%)

Charles Rosa

Head 75.5% (norm 77.5%) · Body 11.0% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 13.5% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Bochniak L/AAccFeatherweight med Rosa L/AAccFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 243 / 817 29.7% 40.7% 492 / 1419 34.7% 40.7%
In the clinch 28 / 53 52.8% 70.5% 23 / 42 54.8% 70.5%
On the ground 5 / 9 too few to rate 69.1% 38 / 63 60.3% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 172 / 717 24.0% 37.2% 307 / 1150 26.7% 37.2%
To the body 45 / 85 52.9% 68.4% 89 / 168 53.0% 68.4%
To the legs 59 / 77 76.6% 80.7% 157 / 206 76.2% 80.7%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Featherweight: 129 fighters · Featherweight: 129 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Bochniak L/AOpp accFeatherweight med vs Rosa L/AOpp accFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 474 / 1188 39.9% 39.3% 500 / 1057 47.3% 39.3%
In the clinch 35 / 48 72.9% 70.3% 53 / 80 66.2% 70.3%
On the ground 28 / 47 59.6% 69.5% 139 / 173 80.3% 69.5%
BY TARGET
To the head 353 / 1041 33.9% 35.9% 482 / 1048 46.0% 35.9%
To the body 97 / 138 70.3% 68.1% 107 / 145 73.8% 68.1%
To the legs 87 / 104 83.7% 81.1% 103 / 117 88.0% 81.1%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
815.4% acc · 1.14/15 · norm 1.17
Takedowns landed
2035.1% acc · 1.67/15 · norm 1.17
2762.8% def · norm 61.5%
Takedowns stopped
1938.0% def · norm 61.5%
12:0211.5% of cage time · norm 16.5%
Control time
25:3214.2% of cage time · norm 16.5%
16:582:25 per 15 · norm 3:11
Time under control lower is better
63:345:18 per 15 · norm 3:11
00.00/15 · norm 0.44
Submission attempts
121.00/15 · norm 0.44

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Rosa has more cage time on record.