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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Kody Steele vs. Noah Gugnon

UFC 2-1-0 vs. 1-1-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
2-1-0
UFC record
1-1-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
31
AgeΔ 5 yrs
26
5'9"
Height
—
71"
Reach
—
Orthodox
Stance
—0-1 vs orthodox fighters
0.4
Layoff (months)Δ 0 mo
0.4
WWL
Last 5 (newest first)
LW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Noah Gugnon is a submission threat — 2.86 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.48 Lightweight norm.
Kody Steele carries real power — 0.66 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.23 Lightweight norm.
Kody Steele absorbs 6.88 sig. strikes per minute, well above the 3.37 Lightweight norm — hittable.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Kody Steele

Full career not yet synced for Kody Steele — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 2-0 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.0 wins over .500

Noah Gugnon

Full career not yet synced for Noah Gugnon — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 0-0 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.0 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

853.72/min · norm 3.43
Sig. strikes landed
366.86/min · norm 3.43
1576.88/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
315.90/min · norm 3.37
32.4%norm 43.7%
Striking accuracy
52.9%norm 43.7%
47.7%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
56.3%norm 56.3%
10.66/15 · norm 0.23
Knockdowns
00.00/15 · norm 0.23

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Kody Steele

Distance 96.9% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 1.9% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 1.1% (norm 8.0%)

Noah Gugnon

Distance 88.2% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 8.8% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 2.9% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Kody Steele

Head 91.6% (norm 78.1%) · Body 6.1% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 2.3% (norm 8.0%)

Noah Gugnon

Head 85.3% (norm 78.1%) · Body 0.0% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 14.7% (norm 8.0%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Steele L/AAccLightweight med Gugnon L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 80 / 254 31.5% 38.4% 31 / 60 51.7% 38.4%
In the clinch 2 / 5 too few to rate 67.5% 5 / 6 too few to rate 67.5%
On the ground 3 / 3 too few to rate 69.1% 0 / 2 too few to rate 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 68 / 240 28.3% 35.3% 27 / 58 46.6% 35.3%
To the body 13 / 16 too few to rate 69.2% 0 / 0 too few to rate 69.2%
To the legs 4 / 6 too few to rate 81.8% 9 / 10 too few to rate 81.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 205 fighters · Lightweight: 205 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Steele L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Gugnon L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 152 / 294 51.7% 38.9% 27 / 66 40.9% 38.9%
In the clinch 5 / 6 too few to rate 68.6% 1 / 2 too few to rate 68.6%
On the ground 0 / 0 too few to rate 68.2% 3 / 3 too few to rate 68.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 134 / 271 49.4% 35.2% 25 / 63 39.7% 35.2%
To the body 4 / 9 too few to rate 68.2% 4 / 6 too few to rate 68.2%
To the legs 19 / 20 too few to rate 81.5% 2 / 2 too few to rate 81.5%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
337.5% acc · 1.97/15 · norm 1.34
Takedowns landed
0— acc · 0.00/15 · norm 1.34
0— def · norm 63.2%
Takedowns stopped
266.7% def · norm 63.2%
2:129.6% of cage time · norm 19.0%
Control time
0:4012.7% of cage time · norm 19.0%
0:460:30 per 15 · norm 2:50
Time under control lower is better
0:221:02 per 15 · norm 2:50
10.66/15 · norm 0.48
Submission attempts
12.86/15 · norm 0.48

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Steele has more cage time on record.