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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Kai Kamaka vs. Danny Chavez

UFC 2-4-1 vs. 1-2-1

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
2-4-1
UFC record
1-2-1
Featherweight
Division (benchmark)
Featherweight
31
AgeΔ 8 yrs
39
5'7"
HeightΔ 1"
5'8"
69"
ReachΔ 2"
67"
Orthodox0-1-1 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox0-2-1 vs orthodox fighters
0.8
Layoff (months)Δ 51.8 mo
52.6
LLWDL
Last 5 (newest first)
LDLW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Kai Kamaka absorbs 6.25 sig. strikes per minute, well above the 3.54 Featherweight norm — hittable.
Danny Chavez hunts takedowns — 1.95 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.17 Featherweight norm.
Kai Kamaka outworks the Featherweight division — 5.53 sig. strikes landed per minute, vs a 3.52 norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Kai Kamaka

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 105
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 10
Tier 3 — regional circuit 73

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.86 · 11 tier-1/2 wins · 4 finish wins over 27 documented bouts

In the UFC: 0-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record -0.1 wins over .500

Danny Chavez

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 12
Tier 3 — regional circuit 113

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.48 · 1 tier-1/2 wins · 4 finish wins over 18 documented bouts

In the UFC: 0-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.5 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

4315.53/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
1322.86/min · norm 3.52
4876.25/min · norm 3.54
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
1773.83/min · norm 3.54
57.7%norm 44.8%
Striking accuracy
38.6%norm 44.8%
54.9%norm 54.8%
Striking defense
51.0%norm 54.8%
10.19/15 · norm 0.28
Knockdowns
00.00/15 · norm 0.28

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Kai Kamaka

Distance 89.4% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 8.4% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 2.1% (norm 6.4%)

Danny Chavez

Distance 90.1% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 5.3% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 4.7% (norm 6.4%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Kai Kamaka

Head 62.4% (norm 77.5%) · Body 26.8% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 10.8% (norm 7.9%)

Danny Chavez

Head 76.0% (norm 77.5%) · Body 9.1% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 14.9% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Kamaka L/AAccFeatherweight med Chavez L/AAccFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 366 / 668 54.8% 40.7% 109 / 308 35.4% 40.7%
In the clinch 53 / 63 84.1% 70.5% 11 / 18 too few to rate 70.5%
On the ground 12 / 16 too few to rate 69.1% 12 / 16 too few to rate 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 188 / 466 40.3% 37.2% 73 / 260 28.1% 37.2%
To the body 173 / 200 86.5% 68.4% 20 / 31 64.5% 68.4%
To the legs 70 / 81 86.4% 80.7% 39 / 51 76.5% 80.7%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Featherweight: 129 fighters · Featherweight: 129 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Kamaka L/AOpp accFeatherweight med vs Chavez L/AOpp accFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 351 / 906 38.7% 39.3% 151 / 324 46.6% 39.3%
In the clinch 110 / 143 76.9% 70.3% 17 / 24 too few to rate 70.3%
On the ground 26 / 31 83.9% 69.5% 9 / 13 too few to rate 69.5%
BY TARGET
To the head 310 / 836 37.1% 35.9% 78 / 232 33.6% 35.9%
To the body 129 / 182 70.9% 68.1% 47 / 66 71.2% 68.1%
To the legs 48 / 62 77.4% 81.1% 52 / 63 82.5% 81.1%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
753.8% acc · 1.35/15 · norm 1.17
Takedowns landed
660.0% acc · 1.95/15 · norm 1.17
1155.0% def · norm 61.5%
Takedowns stopped
1487.5% def · norm 61.5%
15:2419.8% of cage time · norm 16.5%
Control time
2:506.1% of cage time · norm 16.5%
5:591:09 per 15 · norm 3:11
Time under control lower is better
10:443:29 per 15 · norm 3:11
10.19/15 · norm 0.44
Submission attempts
00.00/15 · norm 0.44

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Kamaka has more cage time on record.