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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Julian Erosa vs. Devonte Smith

UFC 10-9-0 vs. 3-3-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
10-9-0
UFC record
3-3-0
Featherweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
37
AgeΔ 4 yrs
33
6'1"
HeightΔ 4"
5'9"
74"
ReachΔ 2"
76"
Southpaw8-4 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox1-1 vs southpaws
0.1
Layoff (months)Δ 55.9 mo
56
WLLWW
Last 5 (newest first)
LLWLW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Devonte Smith carries real power — 0.74 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.23 Lightweight norm.
Julian Erosa absorbs 6.22 sig. strikes per minute, well above the 3.54 Featherweight norm — hittable.
Julian Erosa outworks the Featherweight division — 6.11 sig. strikes landed per minute, vs a 3.52 norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Julian Erosa

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 109
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 01
Tier 3 — regional circuit 213

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.92 · 10 tier-1/2 wins · 26 finish wins over 44 documented bouts

In the UFC: 5-3 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.4 wins over .500

Devonte Smith

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 43
Tier 3 — regional circuit 71

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.09 · 4 tier-1/2 wins · 11 finish wins over 15 documented bouts

In the UFC: 1-0 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record -0.3 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

8716.11/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
1634.04/min · norm 3.43
8876.22/min · norm 3.54
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
1523.76/min · norm 3.37
48.1%norm 44.8%
Striking accuracy
51.6%norm 43.7%
49.4%norm 54.8%
Striking defense
48.8%norm 56.3%
20.21/15 · norm 0.28
Knockdowns
20.74/15 · norm 0.23

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Julian Erosa

Distance 85.5% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 11.0% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 3.4% (norm 6.4%)

Devonte Smith

Distance 80.7% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 12.0% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 7.3% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Julian Erosa

Head 78.5% (norm 77.5%) · Body 16.2% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 5.4% (norm 7.9%)

Devonte Smith

Head 73.1% (norm 78.1%) · Body 15.8% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 11.1% (norm 8.0%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Erosa L/AAccFeatherweight med Smith L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 675 / 1548 43.6% 40.7% 117 / 255 45.9% 38.4%
In the clinch 141 / 200 70.5% 70.5% 30 / 38 78.9% 67.5%
On the ground 55 / 62 88.7% 69.1% 16 / 23 too few to rate 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 581 / 1420 40.9% 37.2% 94 / 231 40.7% 35.3%
To the body 209 / 293 71.3% 68.4% 37 / 50 74.0% 69.2%
To the legs 81 / 97 83.5% 80.7% 32 / 35 91.4% 81.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Featherweight: 129 fighters · Lightweight: 205 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Erosa L/AOpp accFeatherweight med vs Smith L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 744 / 1523 48.9% 39.3% 109 / 235 46.4% 38.9%
In the clinch 86 / 138 62.3% 70.3% 33 / 45 73.3% 68.6%
On the ground 57 / 93 61.3% 69.5% 10 / 17 too few to rate 68.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 651 / 1453 44.8% 35.9% 63 / 180 35.0% 35.2%
To the body 115 / 153 75.2% 68.1% 53 / 71 74.6% 68.2%
To the legs 121 / 148 81.8% 81.1% 36 / 46 78.3% 81.5%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
1742.5% acc · 1.79/15 · norm 1.17
Takedowns landed
125.0% acc · 0.37/15 · norm 1.34
2461.5% def · norm 61.5%
Takedowns stopped
583.3% def · norm 63.2%
22:1715.6% of cage time · norm 16.5%
Control time
3:278.5% of cage time · norm 19.0%
19:292:03 per 15 · norm 3:11
Time under control lower is better
7:402:50 per 15 · norm 2:50
70.74/15 · norm 0.44
Submission attempts
10.37/15 · norm 0.48

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Erosa has more cage time on record.