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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Josiah Harrell vs. Elves Brener

UFC 0-2-0 vs. 4-3-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
0-2-0
UFC record
4-3-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
27
AgeΔ 2 yrs
29
5'7"
HeightΔ 3"
5'10"
68"
ReachΔ 4"
72"
Southpaw0-1 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox1-0 vs southpaws
1.3
Layoff (months)Δ 0 mo
1.3
LL
Last 5 (newest first)
WLLLW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Josiah Harrell hunts takedowns — 4.14 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.34 Lightweight norm.
Elves Brener carries real power — 0.56 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.23 Lightweight norm.
Josiah Harrell absorbs 8.00 sig. strikes per minute, well above the 3.37 Lightweight norm — hittable.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Josiah Harrell

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 02
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 20
Tier 3 — regional circuit 90

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.13 · 2 tier-1/2 wins · 10 finish wins over 13 documented bouts

In the UFC: 0-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.0 wins over .500

Elves Brener

Full career not yet synced for Elves Brener — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 1-3 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.0 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

162.21/min · norm 3.43
Sig. strikes landed
3864.82/min · norm 3.43
588.00/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
4545.67/min · norm 3.37
45.7%norm 43.7%
Striking accuracy
48.5%norm 43.7%
30.1%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
50.9%norm 56.3%
00.00/15 · norm 0.23
Knockdowns
30.56/15 · norm 0.23

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Josiah Harrell

Distance 100.0% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 0.0% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 0.0% (norm 8.0%)

Elves Brener

Distance 94.1% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 2.4% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 3.5% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Josiah Harrell

Head 57.1% (norm 78.1%) · Body 20.0% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 22.9% (norm 8.0%)

Elves Brener

Head 72.1% (norm 78.1%) · Body 14.1% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 13.8% (norm 8.0%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Harrell L/AAccLightweight med Brener L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 16 / 35 45.7% 38.4% 354 / 749 47.3% 38.4%
In the clinch 0 / 0 too few to rate 67.5% 12 / 19 too few to rate 67.5%
On the ground 0 / 0 too few to rate 69.1% 20 / 28 71.4% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 6 / 20 too few to rate 35.3% 218 / 574 38.0% 35.3%
To the body 5 / 7 too few to rate 69.2% 74 / 112 66.1% 69.2%
To the legs 5 / 8 too few to rate 81.8% 94 / 110 85.5% 81.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 205 fighters · Lightweight: 205 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Harrell L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Brener L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 44 / 69 63.8% 38.9% 356 / 797 44.7% 38.9%
In the clinch 1 / 1 too few to rate 68.6% 54 / 64 84.4% 68.6%
On the ground 13 / 13 too few to rate 68.2% 44 / 64 68.8% 68.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 29 / 51 56.9% 35.2% 329 / 760 43.3% 35.2%
To the body 14 / 15 too few to rate 68.2% 93 / 121 76.9% 68.2%
To the legs 15 / 17 too few to rate 81.5% 32 / 44 72.7% 81.5%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
240.0% acc · 4.14/15 · norm 1.34
Takedowns landed
516.7% acc · 0.94/15 · norm 1.34
00.0% def · norm 63.2%
Takedowns stopped
2071.4% def · norm 63.2%
0:347.8% of cage time · norm 19.0%
Control time
6:137.8% of cage time · norm 19.0%
0:260:53 per 15 · norm 2:50
Time under control lower is better
14:122:39 per 15 · norm 2:50
00.00/15 · norm 0.48
Submission attempts
00.00/15 · norm 0.48

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Brener has more cage time on record.