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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Joshua Van vs. Manel Kape

UFC 11-1-0 vs. 8-3-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
11-1-0
UFC record
8-3-0
Flyweight
Division (benchmark)
Flyweight
25
AgeΔ 7 yrs
32
5'5"
HeightΔ 0"
5'5"
65"
ReachΔ 3"
68"
Orthodox2-0 vs southpaws
Stance
Southpaw5-3 vs orthodox fighters
1.5
Layoff (months)Δ 3 mo
4.5
WWWWW
Last 5 (newest first)
WWWWL

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Manel Kape carries real power — 0.97 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.18 Flyweight norm.
Joshua Van carries real power — 0.70 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.18 Flyweight norm.
Joshua Van outworks the Flyweight division — 8.26 sig. strikes landed per minute, vs a 3.48 norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Joshua Van

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 101
Tier 3 — regional circuit 71

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.67 · 10 tier-1/2 wins · 11 finish wins over 19 documented bouts

In the UFC: 7-0 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.7 wins over .500

Manel Kape

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 146
Tier 3 — regional circuit 91

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.51 · 14 tier-1/2 wins · 20 finish wins over 30 documented bouts

In the UFC: 5-3 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.6 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

14118.26/min · norm 3.48
Sig. strikes landed
5804.68/min · norm 3.48
9965.83/min · norm 3.24
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
4813.88/min · norm 3.24
57.6%norm 44.6%
Striking accuracy
55.1%norm 44.6%
57.0%norm 56.4%
Striking defense
57.0%norm 56.4%
80.70/15 · norm 0.18
Knockdowns
80.97/15 · norm 0.18

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Joshua Van

Distance 90.1% (norm 85.1%) · Clinch 5.6% (norm 6.0%) · Ground 4.3% (norm 7.5%)

Manel Kape

Distance 90.7% (norm 85.1%) · Clinch 3.2% (norm 6.0%) · Ground 6.1% (norm 7.5%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Joshua Van

Head 82.6% (norm 75.9%) · Body 12.5% (norm 13.0%) · Legs 4.9% (norm 9.3%)

Manel Kape

Head 77.4% (norm 75.9%) · Body 13.5% (norm 13.0%) · Legs 9.1% (norm 9.3%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Van L/AAccFlyweight med Kape L/AAccFlyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 1230 / 2207 55.7% 39.9% 515 / 955 53.9% 39.9%
In the clinch 111 / 137 81.0% 70.1% 23 / 34 67.6% 70.1%
On the ground 70 / 105 66.7% 71.1% 42 / 64 65.6% 71.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 1050 / 2024 51.9% 37.6% 387 / 815 47.5% 37.6%
To the body 252 / 305 82.6% 68.7% 108 / 142 76.1% 68.7%
To the legs 109 / 120 90.8% 79.7% 85 / 96 88.5% 79.7%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Flyweight: 73 fighters · Flyweight: 73 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Van L/AOpp accFlyweight med vs Kape L/AOpp accFlyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 936 / 2231 42.0% 39.9% 453 / 1074 42.2% 39.9%
In the clinch 43 / 63 68.3% 68.8% 14 / 22 too few to rate 68.8%
On the ground 17 / 24 too few to rate 70.4% 14 / 23 too few to rate 70.4%
BY TARGET
To the head 662 / 1860 35.6% 35.4% 235 / 739 31.8% 35.4%
To the body 162 / 241 67.2% 67.9% 150 / 236 63.6% 67.9%
To the legs 172 / 217 79.3% 79.7% 96 / 144 66.7% 79.7%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
861.5% acc · 0.70/15 · norm 1.30
Takedowns landed
330.0% acc · 0.36/15 · norm 1.30
6975.0% def · norm 61.2%
Takedowns stopped
3378.6% def · norm 61.2%
12:537.5% of cage time · norm 17.0%
Control time
3:382.9% of cage time · norm 17.0%
31:352:46 per 15 · norm 2:46
Time under control lower is better
11:561:26 per 15 · norm 2:46
30.26/15 · norm 0.58
Submission attempts
20.24/15 · norm 0.58

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Van has more cage time on record.