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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Jose Aldo vs. Merab Dvalishvili

UFC 14-9-0 vs. 14-4-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
14-9-0
UFC record
14-4-0
Featherweight
Division (benchmark)
Bantamweight
40
AgeΔ 5 yrs
35
5'7"
HeightΔ 1"
5'6"
70"
ReachΔ 2"
68"
Orthodox11-6 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox9-2 vs orthodox fighters
17.9
Layoff (months)Δ 17.5 mo
0.4
LLWLW
Last 5 (newest first)
LLWWW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Merab Dvalishvili hunts takedowns — 5.74 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.12 Bantamweight norm.
Merab Dvalishvili owns the mat — in control 34% of cage time, vs a 18% Bantamweight norm.
Jose Aldo rarely shoots — 0.51 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.17 Featherweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Jose Aldo

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 149
Tier 3 — regional circuit 181

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.13 · 14 tier-1/2 wins · 18 finish wins over 42 documented bouts

In the UFC: 14-9 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +5.5 wins over .500

Merab Dvalishvili

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 143
Tier 3 — regional circuit 72

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.37 · 14 tier-1/2 wins · 5 finish wins over 26 documented bouts

In the UFC: 12-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +4.1 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

13543.57/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
14534.48/min · norm 3.52
16004.21/min · norm 3.54
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
9662.98/min · norm 3.58
45.3%norm 44.8%
Striking accuracy
41.0%norm 43.5%
58.4%norm 54.8%
Striking defense
52.9%norm 56.6%
70.28/15 · norm 0.28
Knockdowns
10.05/15 · norm 0.29

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Jose Aldo

Distance 93.6% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 2.3% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 4.0% (norm 6.4%)

Merab Dvalishvili

Distance 79.4% (norm 87.4%) · Clinch 8.5% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 12.2% (norm 6.4%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Jose Aldo

Head 79.8% (norm 77.5%) · Body 13.9% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 6.2% (norm 7.9%)

Merab Dvalishvili

Head 81.7% (norm 77.5%) · Body 9.9% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 8.4% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Aldo L/AAccFeatherweight med Dvalishvili L/AAccBantamweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 1220 / 2802 43.5% 40.7% 963 / 2813 34.2% 39.2%
In the clinch 56 / 69 81.2% 70.5% 206 / 300 68.7% 69.0%
On the ground 78 / 121 64.5% 69.1% 284 / 431 65.9% 70.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 913 / 2389 38.2% 37.2% 980 / 2895 33.9% 35.3%
To the body 280 / 416 67.3% 68.4% 237 / 352 67.3% 66.9%
To the legs 161 / 187 86.1% 80.7% 236 / 297 79.5% 79.2%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Featherweight: 129 fighters · Bantamweight: 121 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Aldo L/AOpp accFeatherweight med vs Dvalishvili L/AOpp accBantamweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 1242 / 3376 36.8% 39.3% 816 / 1837 44.4% 39.4%
In the clinch 153 / 189 81.0% 70.3% 125 / 185 67.6% 70.6%
On the ground 205 / 277 74.0% 69.5% 25 / 29 86.2% 72.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 991 / 2993 33.1% 35.9% 588 / 1565 37.6% 34.9%
To the body 289 / 433 66.7% 68.1% 243 / 328 74.1% 66.1%
To the legs 320 / 416 76.9% 81.1% 135 / 158 85.4% 78.8%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
1350.0% acc · 0.51/15 · norm 1.17
Takedowns landed
12431.3% acc · 5.74/15 · norm 1.12
9891.6% def · norm 61.5%
Takedowns stopped
3976.5% def · norm 65.7%
44:0611.6% of cage time · norm 16.5%
Control time
109:1933.7% of cage time · norm 17.8%
52:302:04 per 15 · norm 3:11
Time under control lower is better
16:080:44 per 15 · norm 2:24
40.16/15 · norm 0.44
Submission attempts
70.32/15 · norm 0.28

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Aldo has more cage time on record.