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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

John Makdessi vs. Yancy Medeiros

UFC 11-9-0 vs. 6-8-0 (1 NC)

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
11-9-0
UFC record
6-8-0 (1 NC)
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
41
AgeΔ 2 yrs
39
5'8"
HeightΔ 2"
5'10"
68"
ReachΔ 7"
75"
Orthodox8-6 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox5-5 vs orthodox fighters
37.9
Layoff (months)Δ 26.4 mo
64.3
LLWLW
Last 5 (newest first)
LLLLW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Yancy Medeiros carries real power — 1.10 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.23 Lightweight norm.
John Makdessi rarely shoots — 0.00 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.34 Lightweight norm.
Yancy Medeiros absorbs 6.18 sig. strikes per minute, well above the 3.37 Lightweight norm — hittable.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

John Makdessi

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 119
Tier 3 — regional circuit 70

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.02 · 11 tier-1/2 wins · 9 finish wins over 27 documented bouts

In the UFC: 6-4 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.1 wins over .500

Yancy Medeiros

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 79
Tier 3 — regional circuit 90

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.81 · 7 tier-1/2 wins · 12 finish wins over 27 documented bouts

In the UFC: 4-6 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.1 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

13405.52/min · norm 3.43
Sig. strikes landed
5514.49/min · norm 3.43
10084.15/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
7586.18/min · norm 3.37
49.8%norm 43.7%
Striking accuracy
37.2%norm 43.7%
68.0%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
47.2%norm 56.3%
60.37/15 · norm 0.23
Knockdowns
91.10/15 · norm 0.23

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

John Makdessi

Distance 93.7% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 4.3% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 2.0% (norm 8.0%)

Yancy Medeiros

Distance 92.4% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 4.2% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 3.3% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

John Makdessi

Head 63.5% (norm 78.1%) · Body 21.1% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 15.5% (norm 8.0%)

Yancy Medeiros

Head 80.8% (norm 78.1%) · Body 14.4% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 4.8% (norm 8.0%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Makdessi L/AAccLightweight med Medeiros L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 1249 / 2520 49.6% 38.4% 467 / 1371 34.1% 38.4%
In the clinch 64 / 115 55.7% 67.5% 47 / 63 74.6% 67.5%
On the ground 27 / 55 49.1% 69.1% 37 / 49 75.5% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 678 / 1707 39.7% 35.3% 357 / 1199 29.8% 35.3%
To the body 325 / 567 57.3% 69.2% 133 / 213 62.4% 69.2%
To the legs 337 / 416 81.0% 81.8% 61 / 71 85.9% 81.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 205 fighters · Lightweight: 205 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Makdessi L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Medeiros L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 942 / 3050 30.9% 38.9% 605 / 1228 49.3% 38.9%
In the clinch 41 / 66 62.1% 68.6% 92 / 134 68.7% 68.6%
On the ground 25 / 38 65.8% 68.2% 61 / 73 83.6% 68.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 572 / 2497 22.9% 35.2% 455 / 1030 44.2% 35.2%
To the body 204 / 363 56.2% 68.2% 181 / 260 69.6% 68.2%
To the legs 232 / 294 78.9% 81.5% 122 / 145 84.1% 81.5%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
00.0% acc · 0.00/15 · norm 1.34
Takedowns landed
350.0% acc · 0.37/15 · norm 1.34
4486.3% def · norm 63.2%
Takedowns stopped
2463.2% def · norm 63.2%
3:481.6% of cage time · norm 19.0%
Control time
10:298.6% of cage time · norm 19.0%
9:310:35 per 15 · norm 2:50
Time under control lower is better
20:472:32 per 15 · norm 2:50
00.00/15 · norm 0.48
Submission attempts
60.73/15 · norm 0.48

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Makdessi has more cage time on record.