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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

John Dodson vs. Petr Yan

UFC 10-7-0 vs. 13-4-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
10-7-0
UFC record
13-4-0
Bantamweight
Division (benchmark)
Bantamweight
42
AgeΔ 9 yrs
33
5'3"
HeightΔ 4"
5'7"
66"
ReachΔ 1"
67"
Orthodox0-1 vs switch-stance fighters
Stance
Switch11-3 vs orthodox fighters
74.6
Layoff (months)Δ 74.2 mo
0.4
LWLLW
Last 5 (newest first)
WWWWW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
John Dodson carries real power — 0.71 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.29 Bantamweight norm.
Petr Yan carries real power — 0.49 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.29 Bantamweight norm.
Petr Yan outworks the Bantamweight division — 5.16 sig. strikes landed per minute, vs a 3.52 norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

John Dodson

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 129
Tier 3 — regional circuit 126

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.83 · 12 tier-1/2 wins · 13 finish wins over 39 documented bouts

In the UFC: 4-6 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.2 wins over .500

Petr Yan

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 124
Tier 3 — regional circuit 81

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.41 · 12 tier-1/2 wins · 8 finish wins over 25 documented bouts

In the UFC: 11-4 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +5.8 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

7423.20/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
15845.16/min · norm 3.52
8283.58/min · norm 3.58
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
13284.32/min · norm 3.58
40.7%norm 43.5%
Striking accuracy
55.0%norm 43.5%
61.6%norm 56.6%
Striking defense
60.1%norm 56.6%
110.71/15 · norm 0.29
Knockdowns
100.49/15 · norm 0.29

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

John Dodson

Distance 91.3% (norm 87.4%) · Clinch 6.8% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 1.9% (norm 6.4%)

Petr Yan

Distance 83.3% (norm 87.4%) · Clinch 8.4% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 8.3% (norm 6.4%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

John Dodson

Head 77.5% (norm 77.5%) · Body 16.1% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 6.4% (norm 8.4%)

Petr Yan

Head 80.5% (norm 77.5%) · Body 12.3% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 7.2% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Dodson L/AAccBantamweight med Yan L/AAccBantamweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 631 / 1664 37.9% 39.2% 1201 / 2400 50.0% 39.2%
In the clinch 84 / 123 68.3% 69.0% 187 / 241 77.6% 69.0%
On the ground 27 / 35 77.1% 70.2% 196 / 239 82.0% 70.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 414 / 1412 29.3% 35.3% 1103 / 2318 47.6% 35.3%
To the body 223 / 293 76.1% 66.9% 294 / 355 82.8% 66.9%
To the legs 105 / 117 89.7% 79.2% 187 / 207 90.3% 79.2%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Bantamweight: 121 fighters · Bantamweight: 121 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Dodson L/AOpp accBantamweight med vs Yan L/AOpp accBantamweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 640 / 1907 33.6% 39.4% 1189 / 3123 38.1% 39.4%
In the clinch 178 / 235 75.7% 70.6% 108 / 161 67.1% 70.6%
On the ground 10 / 12 too few to rate 72.1% 31 / 42 73.8% 72.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 471 / 1568 30.0% 34.9% 864 / 2626 32.9% 34.9%
To the body 197 / 361 54.6% 66.1% 278 / 435 63.9% 66.1%
To the legs 160 / 225 71.1% 78.8% 186 / 265 70.2% 78.8%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
1128.9% acc · 0.71/15 · norm 1.12
Takedowns landed
3248.5% acc · 1.56/15 · norm 1.12
7482.2% def · norm 65.7%
Takedowns stopped
19987.7% def · norm 65.7%
11:285.0% of cage time · norm 17.8%
Control time
42:4213.9% of cage time · norm 17.8%
19:091:14 per 15 · norm 2:24
Time under control lower is better
35:501:45 per 15 · norm 2:24
00.00/15 · norm 0.28
Submission attempts
20.10/15 · norm 0.28

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Dodson has more cage time on record.